Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Close In The Green
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Bell Buzz - Todd Harrison - 3:21 PM
- Jim Rogers... this is nuts! I mean, honestly, Fed credibility? Blasphemous!
- No, seriously... the interview above touches on many of the themes we've been speaking about for some time. It's not a popular point of view but, well, the truth sometimes hurts. Our goal in Minyanville isn't to shape that truth, it's simply to expose it for the benefit of ye faithful.
- His favorite shorts, by the way and for those who can't launch that video, include the investment banks, Fannie Mae and Citigroup. He also chimes in on the dollar, "Level III accounting" (something we've been watching), inflation, $100-$150 oil and agriculture (as the place to be).
- Where there's smoke, there's fire. And there's also AIG earnings next week, which should be interesting from a "reaction to news" standpoint. I continue to believe that there's a LOT more write-downs floating around out there ($100 billion in total by year-end?).
- Consistent with my earlier post, I'm staying light and tight with my exposure (with plenty of dry powder). I have been lugging some out-month paper in the S&P and select financials, which I'm happy to pare on down days. I sat tight yesterday but, so you know, I unwound some risk today.
- Keep in mind, as I'm keeping in mind, that BKX 92ish is the next support zone (and it's coming up quick).
- I'm jugglin' a few calls regarding MV Kids and the upcoming Festivus so lemme hop. I sincerely hope this finds you well and that no matter how you hit 'em this week, your weekend vibes it to shame.
- Fare ye well into the bell.
Gold Spots - Lance Lewis - 1:34 PM
Spot gold has now cleared $800. This round number has always been where I have thought we'd see an upward re-rating of sorts in the valuations of the gold shares.
With the XAU/Gold ratio at just 0.23 and just below the mid-point of the past seven years, there's lots of upside left, especially if we got back to levels that we used to see in the 1980s and early 1990s when the market was actually somewhat concerned about inflation (see the chart below).
Let's see what happens over the next several days...
Click to enlarge
Positions in GLD, gold shares.
Caution Ahead - Quint Tatro - 11:39 AM
Selling early strength was too ripe an opportunity for those stuck in yesterday's carnage, in addition to lip smacking bears looking for a quick trade. We're off opening lows but it still is looking very dangerous out there with no sign of relief.
I have sat and pondered the action a bit from the prospective of an optimist. I am sure there are many who view this as an opportunity to buy weakness however I am also sure that those same people have done the same time and again this year and up very well on the year. I have been fortunate to be one of those optimists this year, however now I find myself hesitating simply because there is 2 months left and why should I risk giving back any of my gains and coming back to meet Mr. Market?
So therein lies the rub. In order for us to restore any technical health, someone is going to have to step in to this market and place some bids but are they willing to sacrifice their performance to do it, should they be wrong?
I took the open to do some minor portfolio reshuffling but for the most part I am holding steady with a high level of cash. I have a few stocks that are breaking their lines and are on the chopping block should they not shape up by day's end however many others are still wiggling within their respective ranges.
The action is ugly and the bears are in control, I am not fighting them, but I am not yet joining the party either.
GFIG Group In The Sweet Spot - Ryan Krueger - 10:12 AM
GFIG Group (GFIG) is a stock I've buzzed about often not only because I like the business, but I think it is uniquely poised on the sweet spot on the edge of these violent market moves and they are worth watching for many reasons. They provide brokerage services and analysis products surrounding derivatives and catering to institutional clients dealing with increased volatility in the capital markets.
Reporting numbers yesterday revealed the company kept its costs down, ramped its top line revenues, and drove higher margins. Brokers at the big wirehouses remember how sweet that formula can be, right up until their chiefs decided to make loans instead of innovate around their best talent who will always be paid a premium.
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