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Random Thoughts: Miso Horny?

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Why is this tape suddenly looking good?

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Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Mickey Mantle Won't Pay Our Rent and Dusting Off the Bull Costume.


As I sift through emails asking HOW and WHY I could be warming up to the tape for a trade, I thought it might be helpful to offer some muse in the blues (in no particular order, of course). I understand the risks--we've mapped 'em for many years--and I'm not trying to pick a bottom, I'm simply attempting to pick my spots.

  • I'm typically early, which is precisely why I'm edging into risk rather than swallowing the whole bag of nuts in one gulp. Whether or not that means "Turnaround Tuesday" remains to be seen.

  • Not to mention "whether or not it works." Remember, we spoke of two scenarios--the cancer and the car crash--and they're not necessarily mutually exclusive. As John Maynard Keynes said, "markets can remain irrational longer than people can stay solvent."

  • Still, I share my fare for those who care. For the first time in a long time, I'm scaling into long side exposure (QLD, Weatherford (WFT), Transocean (RIG) and a smattering of GLD puts).

  • Note the VXO, which is trading at 61. While we could crash (which, by definition, renders technical guides obsolete), the upside ducks are seemingly aligning in my crowded keppe.

  • Second leg in the bull costume--this makes 50% conviction on the long side. At risk is my capital and credibility, not necessarily in that order.

  • If and when we get the coordinated emergency global cut, you won't be able to snatch risk. Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle, we know, but seeing the scenarios is an important part of the risk assimilation process.

  • Gobble Gobble! I just got a cold call and the woman on the phone reminded me of the clerk at the airport at Planes, Trains and Automobiles. Seriously, I didn't know whether to laugh or cry.

  • Lots to digest, Minyans, so keep your thoughts lucid and your energy positive. The greatest opportunities are bred from the most profound obstacles.


R.P.

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Positions in QLD, GLD, WFT, RIG
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