Random Thoughts: Crude Sounds the Siren
What can we take away from rallying oil?
- What is crude--quietly up 12%--telling us into the long weekend?
- Something geopolitical perhaps, particularly with Boeing (BA) and Honeywell (HON) (defense names) acting well in a heavy tape?
- Does anyone else yearn for simpler times?
- We recently asked how long it would take before pissed-off politicians targeted prior compensation in the hedge fund universe. This news from across the pond is seemingly a step in that direction.
- I enjoy Grey's Anatomy. There, I said it.
- "It would be nice... if catalysts were driving trading activity in the markets. Unfortunately, there is only one catalyst these days, trust and its continued deterioration." --BTIG Strategist Mike O'Rourke
- Social mood and risk appetites shape the tape. That's old hat for old school Minyans.
- S&P 800 still looms large and, if broken, should beeline to Pep's S&P 783 target.
- From there, all eyes will be watching to see if that's a false breakdown (evident if 800 is recaptured) or a precursor to our perceived 2009 nadir (S&P 600). One step at a time and, for what it's worth, I don't sense it's today's business.
- Thanks for the smile, Minyan Harvey. A little levity goes a long way!
- Consistent with the Sleep-O-Meter, Minyans have been asking what that "something" coming down the pipe might be. I don't know (if I knew the way, I would take you home) but I am keeping all risk on a tight leash as a function of discipline.
- Setting (trailing) stops remove emotion. That's how I'm rollin' into the weekend with one eye on the clock and the other on getting out of Dodge for a few days.
- My eyes continue to drift towards General Electric (GE) each and every day.
- "While debt is front and center as the issue at hand, credit of a different breed -- credibility -- has emerged as the issue at hand for markets at large. If and when investors begin to perceive that central banks are no longer larger than the markets-and this, in my opinion, is simply a matter of time-a crisis in confidence will ensue." --The Credit Card, August 22, 2007
- Is Alex's nickname now pronounced a-ROD?
- Breathe, Minyans, we're almost there. Have a rocking good weekend and enjoy the three-day respite. You've most certainly earned it.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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