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Random Thoughts: Crude Sounds the Siren


What can we take away from rallying oil?

  • What is crude--quietly up 12%--telling us into the long weekend?

  • Something geopolitical perhaps, particularly with Boeing (BA) and Honeywell (HON) (defense names) acting well in a heavy tape?

  • Does anyone else yearn for simpler times?

  • We recently asked how long it would take before pissed-off politicians targeted prior compensation in the hedge fund universe. This news from across the pond is seemingly a step in that direction.

  • I enjoy Grey's Anatomy. There, I said it.

  • "It would be nice... if catalysts were driving trading activity in the markets. Unfortunately, there is only one catalyst these days, trust and its continued deterioration." --BTIG Strategist Mike O'Rourke

  • Social mood and risk appetites shape the tape. That's old hat for old school Minyans.

  • S&P 800 still looms large and, if broken, should beeline to Pep's S&P 783 target.

  • From there, all eyes will be watching to see if that's a false breakdown (evident if 800 is recaptured) or a precursor to our perceived 2009 nadir (S&P 600). One step at a time and, for what it's worth, I don't sense it's today's business.

  • Thanks for the smile, Minyan Harvey. A little levity goes a long way!

  • Consistent with the Sleep-O-Meter, Minyans have been asking what that "something" coming down the pipe might be. I don't know (if I knew the way, I would take you home) but I am keeping all risk on a tight leash as a function of discipline.

  • Setting (trailing) stops remove emotion. That's how I'm rollin' into the weekend with one eye on the clock and the other on getting out of Dodge for a few days.

  • My eyes continue to drift towards General Electric (GE) each and every day.

  • "While debt is front and center as the issue at hand, credit of a different breed -- credibility -- has emerged as the issue at hand for markets at large. If and when investors begin to perceive that central banks are no longer larger than the markets-and this, in my opinion, is simply a matter of time-a crisis in confidence will ensue." --The Credit Card, August 22, 2007

  • Is Alex's nickname now pronounced a-ROD?

  • Breathe, Minyans, we're almost there. Have a rocking good weekend and enjoy the three-day respite. You've most certainly earned it.


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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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