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Random Thoughts

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If you're gonna dream, dream big. This way, if you fall 50% short, you're still 50% ahead.

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  • Is there anyone in the world-one person-that doesn't like a good back scratch?

  • Sniffin' through the tea leaves, they've still got enough gun powder to give it a go. Breadth is 2:1 positive, the financials absorbed the first wave of supply and, yes, quarter-end beckons (gamesmanship, in the post-Spitzer world, typically happens in the day prior to quarter-end).

  • The upside try is not without flies. The homies feel like they wanna fall over and go boom. The semis are pretty in pink and laggy all session. Iran isn't going away. And risk premium, from where I sit, still needs to be priced into the market.

  • What am I doing? Less. I have my situations, which I've manicured more than traded. I've got my index puts, which I almost added to but deferred as a function of market breadth. I've got dry powder, which I'm keeping for the whites of their eyes. And I've got game, like Jesus Shuttlesworth.

  • So, I show up for my trainer this morning at 6:30 despite a nosty bug that would make Ripley blush. I did one set before receiving a verbal beat down. I took it like a man-ok, maybe like a little boy-and was promptly shipped out of the gym and towards the office.

  • If you're gonna dream, dream big. This way, if you fall 50% short, you're still 50% ahead.

  • Snaps to Professor Ryan Krueger for being all over the grains trade, on the 'Ville and at the TD-Ameritrade APEX live events. We like to say that MV is the financial news you need to know before you know you need it. As I watch the "farming plays" grace CNBC, I can't help but think that Kru-Cat embodied that phrase.

  • The financial news you need to know before you know you need it? Yeah, it sure seems that way although, admittedly, the only difference between being early and being wrong is whether you're still there to ring the register.

  • Correlation? Minyan Ken "Who's your caddy?" Klaiman notes that Europe is sticky green despite the fright that is seeping through the stateside dew.

  • Note the semis as the SOX drops a percent. The lesson here? Stocks (or sectors) that open flat (to down) in a jiggy tape do so for a reason (looming supply).

  • If you were choking on your shorts up nine handles this morning, remember how that feels now that we're back at the flat line. You always wanna be in a position to "sell up" or "buy down." If you're not there, please get there.

  • Puss and Boots? Maybe, but I'm watching Boots and Coots (WEL) as a "geopolitical tension proxy" along with crude, which is currently up a deuce.

  • We don't "do" rumors in the 'Ville but pure heads up, April 6th is making the rounds as a possible date for Iran escalation. (And please don't shoot the messenger).

  • Hey, remember that gazillion dollar government telco contract? It's coming down the pipe.

  • We're seeing buyers of the XLE (energy spiders) as crude dances a percent higher.

  • America's Worst Nightmare? Not O-Dog (anyone wanna burger?)--it's the homies, which are starting to rollover anew. You wanna see a nosty looking chart? Check out the HGX, which is hanging on to the 200-day by a thread at a triple bottom.

  • Gamma is my friend, despite the 5% pullback in the VXO.

  • Watch crude as a tell (geopolitical tension proxy), monitor our levels (in the absence of clarity, technicals assume added importance), stay on your toes (we're gonna start to flicker quicker) and please, Minyans, relax your grip on the handlebars (it'll make for a smoother ride).


R.P.

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Position in SPX, WEL
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