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Random Thoughts

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It's always smart to have a wish list--both ways--so when the proper price points arrive, you'll be in a position to act rather than ponder.

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  • Hoofy is quick to note the action in the financials, trannies and semis, offering that the traction in the piggies is proof positive that the previous "non-confirmation" was a simple respite in the context of a broader, upside migration.

  • Boo will offer that BKX 117.25-118 (banks) and XBD 248ish are levels of technical lore in the financial spectrum. "I see the knee jerk," he said to nobody in particular, "but that was then and this is now." Indeed, for the ursine looking for defined risk, both these proxies serve it up with style.

  • As go the financials, so goes the tape. You don't have to agree with it, you simply need to respect it. And no, that certainly doesn't mean that you have to chase it.

  • Away from that uber-important tell, market breadth is 3:2 negative, Rotation Station is in effect (out of energy, metals and drugs), emerging markets are soft and the dollar is slippy (and approaching the first of our "last two" support zones). Again, as long as the dollar is soft--and as long as foreigners don't balk--the asset class dance can conceivably continue.

  • "Yahoo had a chance to regain its credibility last night. It had pre-peppered the market with good comments about its new Panama efforts. Yahoo was (and still is) positioned in the shadows of Google (GOOG); allowing it to grow without Google's headache of having everyone from the DOJ to Viacom (VIA) and Microsoft (MSFT) suing it. Yahoo was one decent report from becoming the internet version of Target (TGT), working under the umbrella of a widely loathed 800-LB gorilla." Television's JeffMacke® on today's Buzz.

  • Bizarro! I woke up, checked my Blackberry and, for the first time in history, had NO overnight messages (I walked to work with an "L" across my forehead). Then, when I got to the office and pulled up my inbox, and found 700 emails (500 of which are SPAM). I can't decide which is worse.

  • It's always smart to have a wish list--both ways--so when the proper price points arrive, you'll be in a position to act rather than ponder. We get that in the 'Ville, which is why some of our professors pulled together their faves in the energy, gas and metal arena.

  • What's more impressive, Tom Hanks from Kip Wilson to Forrest Gump or Philip Seymour Hoffman from Scotty J to Truman Capote?

  • "The percentage of S&P 500 eps growth over the last several quarters due to stock buybacks has been around 15%. In other words, if companies had not retired outstanding shares of stock by issuing debt, eps would be 15% lower than they reported. So far in 1Q 2007 that number has jumped to an astounding 40%. Companies are levering fast, which is providing "liquidity" to equity markets. But by definition this source of liquidity will end." Professor John Succo on today's Buzz.

  • We're seeing a large call buyer in EMC on anticipation that it announces a large spin-off in the coming days.

  • Hercules, Hercules! The new nat gas ETF launched today under the symbol UNG.

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey finds an increase in bullish sentiment to 52.7% from 49.5% last week a decrease in bearish sentiment to 25.3% from 27.5% prior. Those expecting a correction fell to 22.0% from 23.0%. The number of folks who prefer the Sopranos to Entourage arrived at 62%.

  • As discussed yesterday, in an attempt to avoid the double whammy, I punted a fair amount of my long side exposure and will play trader the remainder of this week. I've still got that slab of front month S&P puts (80% of my original position) and will trade around them accordingly.

  • Rest in Peace Uncle Sidney. You were a wonderful man, father, grandfather and humanitarian during your 94 years on earth. We, your family, and countless friends will miss your sage wit and kind smile.


R.P.

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Position in SPX, metals
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