GM: The Road to Hell Is Paved with Good Incentives
By Peter Atwater Jun 03, 2009 9:30 am
Below-market financing doesn't fix problems - only postpones them.
In his op-ed column yesterday in the Wall Street Journal, Paul Ingrassia identified the 1998 auto workers’ strike as the ultimate tipping point for General Motors (GM). While labor relations, or the lack thereof, clearly played a leading role, I'd offer that there was a much bigger factor that fueled GM’s demise - and one which goes back as far as the early 1980s: incentive-rate financing.
Now admittedly, GMAC had played a supporting role to GM’s manufacturing of automobiles long before the '80s. But as interest rates rose into the high teens during the late 1970s, GM, along with the rest of the Big 3 automakers, turned -- out of sheer necessity -- to incentive-rate (below market) financing to boost sales. Not surprisingly, given the program’s success, financing incentives became a key arrow in GM’s quiver against falling sales and the increased penetration of foreign car manufacturers in the United States.
During the early 1980s, rate incentives and extended terms became standard operating procedure for the auto industry. And if one goes back and looks at segment line financials for GM and the other auto makers, there's a visible migration of earnings out of manufacturing and into finance as the one hand subsidized the other.
In the mid-1980s, under the pressure of both rising car costs and lower market share, GM pulled out all stops in the incentive area, offering financing as low as 0.9% - effectively making it costless to car buyers to stretch out their payments.
Shortly thereafter, though, GM and the rest of the Big 3 realized they had a crisis looming in dealerships across the country. As car buyers were to come back to their dealer to trade in their existing financed car for a newer model, these customers would soon find themselves in the awkward position of being underwater, owing more on their existing car than it was worth. And as you might imagine, telling a ripe prospect that they can’t have what they want, wasn't going to work.
And, at least to me, here's where incentives put the final nail in the car coffin. Rather than reassessing its basic business model, the US automobile industry went for the ultimate incentive: short-term leasing. And not just normal leasing, but 2- to 3-year leases with inflated residual value assumptions. As a result, cars went from being an investment to being disposable.
At that point, GM and others had completely mortgaged their future - taking on not just consumer credit risk, but doubling down with residual risk. Now GM worried not only about the profit & loss impact of new-car prices, but used-car prices as well.
Now admittedly, GMAC had played a supporting role to GM’s manufacturing of automobiles long before the '80s. But as interest rates rose into the high teens during the late 1970s, GM, along with the rest of the Big 3 automakers, turned -- out of sheer necessity -- to incentive-rate (below market) financing to boost sales. Not surprisingly, given the program’s success, financing incentives became a key arrow in GM’s quiver against falling sales and the increased penetration of foreign car manufacturers in the United States. During the early 1980s, rate incentives and extended terms became standard operating procedure for the auto industry. And if one goes back and looks at segment line financials for GM and the other auto makers, there's a visible migration of earnings out of manufacturing and into finance as the one hand subsidized the other.
In the mid-1980s, under the pressure of both rising car costs and lower market share, GM pulled out all stops in the incentive area, offering financing as low as 0.9% - effectively making it costless to car buyers to stretch out their payments.
Shortly thereafter, though, GM and the rest of the Big 3 realized they had a crisis looming in dealerships across the country. As car buyers were to come back to their dealer to trade in their existing financed car for a newer model, these customers would soon find themselves in the awkward position of being underwater, owing more on their existing car than it was worth. And as you might imagine, telling a ripe prospect that they can’t have what they want, wasn't going to work.
And, at least to me, here's where incentives put the final nail in the car coffin. Rather than reassessing its basic business model, the US automobile industry went for the ultimate incentive: short-term leasing. And not just normal leasing, but 2- to 3-year leases with inflated residual value assumptions. As a result, cars went from being an investment to being disposable. At that point, GM and others had completely mortgaged their future - taking on not just consumer credit risk, but doubling down with residual risk. Now GM worried not only about the profit & loss impact of new-car prices, but used-car prices as well.
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(9)
Reply
2009-06-03 05:48:30
I disagree
First let's state that there isn't just one thing that GM's downfall, but rather a host of problems. Having said that incentive financing is pretty low on the list and the most easy to correct in that it does not require union or debt holder negotiations or improvement of consumer opinion on product. Just stop doing it.
The author fails to acknowledge that incentive financing was a gimmick. In order to get the low financing, you had to forgo rebates - so you paid the interest upfront instead of over time. In order to give the rebate, they had to inflate the list price of the car. So it was smoke and mirrors. It may have fooled many buyers and the author, but it did not cause the downfall of GM. It was merely a symptom.
The author fails to acknowledge that incentive financing was a gimmick. In order to get the low financing, you had to forgo rebates - so you paid the interest upfront instead of over time. In order to give the rebate, they had to inflate the list price of the car. So it was smoke and mirrors. It may have fooled many buyers and the author, but it did not cause the downfall of GM. It was merely a symptom.
2009-06-03 10:00:22
and Ford?
Peter, if GM's demise originates at least partly with incentive financing, why didn't Ford also go belly up? Did they not offer the same financing as GM?
2009-06-03 10:38:44
"... the mortgage industry's love affair with option ARMs, the credit-card industry's fascination with “teaser rates," or -- dare I suggest -- the Treasury's fixation with the PPIP, or even universities' dependence on scholarships and student loans. For some period of time, incentive rates create the illusion of value..."
The above are symptoms of a declining standard of living. Declining for about the last 40 yrs. People can't buy anything these days without borrowing to do it. That points to the conclusion that the rate of price increases (aka inflation) has been much higher than people realize (and the CPI ) and much higher than income growth.
The cause, not sure, but an increased share going to the government did not help. And We also have seemed to have allowed the results of the corruptness and ineptitude of the governments of China, India and Mexico (and others) to be imported because of poor management of exchange rates and money supply. The have so impoverished their people that it is impossible for any developed country to compete without lowering there own standards.
The above are symptoms of a declining standard of living. Declining for about the last 40 yrs. People can't buy anything these days without borrowing to do it. That points to the conclusion that the rate of price increases (aka inflation) has been much higher than people realize (and the CPI ) and much higher than income growth.
The cause, not sure, but an increased share going to the government did not help. And We also have seemed to have allowed the results of the corruptness and ineptitude of the governments of China, India and Mexico (and others) to be imported because of poor management of exchange rates and money supply. The have so impoverished their people that it is impossible for any developed country to compete without lowering there own standards.
2009-06-03 10:44:55
and Ford?
Ford has a lot smaller product line and seems to have better management, or at least better luck. They basically secured their credit position before the credit crunch happened. whether they saw that coming before the other 2 auto makers through better management or just pure luck, i have no idea. but at some point you have to give Mulalley (who is a Detroit outsider in contrast to GM's new CEO) credit for dodging the bullet.
2009-06-03 11:11:27
and Ford?
Yes, the point is that overall management far outweighs any dubious dabbling in insane incentives. The former CEO begged bailout cash from Congress and used it to offer more 0% financing - Professor Jeffmacke pointed out the lunacy of borrowing at 8% and lending at 0%. I expect the current CEO will do worse, as his Master is currently borrowing from our future revenues at 4% (higher later?) and lending through Bubbly Ben at 0.25%.
What worked for GM works for the country, n'est-ce pas? Beautiful plumage, in'it?
What worked for GM works for the country, n'est-ce pas? Beautiful plumage, in'it?
2009-06-03 12:41:00
Incentive rate financing is a "much bigger factor" in GM's demise than labor relations and costs? "Much bigger"? Are you serious?
GM made the decision long before incentive rate financing to give in to the unions. In typical short term thinking just like the current situation with banks and fees during the housing bubble, GM would not suffer short term profit loss and so it ended strikes too early.
By doing so, GM started to increasingly give in to Walter Reuther and the union demands for pensions and health care.
And worse yet, GM management started making amazing health care promises and not funding them or accounting for them. The promises were absolutely astounding, just at a time the average US citizen started living a lot longer -- and these were life time benefits.
This is the real source of GM's demise, not financing in later years. The latter is a symptom of the former.
Short term thinking trumped long term health of company.
Then when FASB and Congress started to make US companies account for their promises and include the impact of these promises on their financials, GM's demise was set in stone.
So the mistake was made in the 50s and 60s with union promises that clearly could not be kept. This is the FAR BIGGER mistakes than financing in the 80s and 90s.
And of course, GM is just a microcosm of the US Government. The Government has done the same exact thing as GM -- made promises it cannot keep. And worse yet, our current President is making huge new promises we cannot keep...and the country just blindly whistles along and applauds his ridiculous efforts. Why more people don't see this is beyond me.
GM made the decision long before incentive rate financing to give in to the unions. In typical short term thinking just like the current situation with banks and fees during the housing bubble, GM would not suffer short term profit loss and so it ended strikes too early.
By doing so, GM started to increasingly give in to Walter Reuther and the union demands for pensions and health care.
And worse yet, GM management started making amazing health care promises and not funding them or accounting for them. The promises were absolutely astounding, just at a time the average US citizen started living a lot longer -- and these were life time benefits.
This is the real source of GM's demise, not financing in later years. The latter is a symptom of the former.
Short term thinking trumped long term health of company.
Then when FASB and Congress started to make US companies account for their promises and include the impact of these promises on their financials, GM's demise was set in stone.
So the mistake was made in the 50s and 60s with union promises that clearly could not be kept. This is the FAR BIGGER mistakes than financing in the 80s and 90s.
And of course, GM is just a microcosm of the US Government. The Government has done the same exact thing as GM -- made promises it cannot keep. And worse yet, our current President is making huge new promises we cannot keep...and the country just blindly whistles along and applauds his ridiculous efforts. Why more people don't see this is beyond me.
2009-06-03 13:28:07
and Ford?
Ford is a well run company???
Only relative to GM and Chrysler!
Ford has all the same problems awaiting them. They also have too much debt, too much in 'legacy' costs, too many dealers and, most of all a product line, that isn't competitive.
It is the ultimate in back-handed compliments to say they aren't as bad off as GM. Few companies in the history of capitalism ever sank to that level!
2009-06-03 14:21:51
and Ford?
"Ford is a well run company???" LOL!! Nooo, never suggested it was, and if anybody said it was you've got them mixed with me. I just think one cannot blame GM's demise on dumb financing moves. As you so rightly point out, Ford has done all the stuff GM did, but somehow they didn't need or ask for a bailout, and are not threatened (yet) with bankruptcy. Why?
2009-06-04 08:53:59
People Still Want to Buy GM Vehicles
.. But the USA exporting 20,000 jobs/DAILY! has caught up with it. Ford sold off some divisions early to forgo bailouts for now, but is still sinking...
.. GM paid CEOs and VPs way way too much for floating around instead of hiring THOUSANDS MORE WORKERS, which would have made it more efficient... GM gave in to too expensive FRILLS (excess paid days off, 95% supp pay for doing nothing, nonsensical work rules, etc.) for workers...Too many Americans bought FOREIGN sweatshop made vehicles and other FOREIGN products including FOREIGN religions like Christianity, Islam, Judaism, and etc., plus allowing illegal workers in, which drained a RIVER of CASH from the USA daily, as well... and put Americans' JOBS and RETIREMENTS at PERIL...!!! Bush Jr.'s expensive unneeded WARS plus $4.50/gallon gas last Summer was the straw that broke the camel's back by Spetember '08...
.. GM paid CEOs and VPs way way too much for floating around instead of hiring THOUSANDS MORE WORKERS, which would have made it more efficient... GM gave in to too expensive FRILLS (excess paid days off, 95% supp pay for doing nothing, nonsensical work rules, etc.) for workers...Too many Americans bought FOREIGN sweatshop made vehicles and other FOREIGN products including FOREIGN religions like Christianity, Islam, Judaism, and etc., plus allowing illegal workers in, which drained a RIVER of CASH from the USA daily, as well... and put Americans' JOBS and RETIREMENTS at PERIL...!!! Bush Jr.'s expensive unneeded WARS plus $4.50/gallon gas last Summer was the straw that broke the camel's back by Spetember '08...
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