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Stepping Back From The Abyss


Investors are desperately searching for an investment theme that lasts for more than a few days.

The "sell the news" reaction to the Fed 50 basis point cut on Wednesday is understandable, given the market's return from the abyss.

As investors we tend to look for instant cures. If a troubled company gets a new CEO we believe he can turn things around overnight. If the U.S. economy is in trouble we believe the Fed can cut rates aggressively and send the market off to the races.

Of course, neither is true. Both take time to reverse course. In this case, the debate as to whether this is a correction or bear market will be argued by many.

Rough Road Ahead

Without the wind at our back, making money and holding onto profits will be difficult at best as the wounds are fresh and will take some time to heal. The overhead supply of stock to be sold is large and getting larger. You can feel like you aren't bullish enough when the market rocks and too bullish when the market rolls.

Investors are desperately searching for an investment theme that lasts for more than a few days. A change in leadership will probably lead us out but lately has the feel of one step forward and two steps back.

Most great investors will tell you not to panic. It's good advice but it doesn't just apply to panic selling. Yesterday was a buying panic. The market overdosed on "Fed cut euphoria" as investors went into a buying frenzy, fearful of missing the boat. By the end of the day we all had a hangover.

Let's slow the process down and eliminate the day-to-day overreaction to every bit of news that hits the tape.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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