Random Thoughts

Bennie and the Feds take the hill today, with investors watching every twitch, sniff, cough and hitch. Given the sudden jitters in the debt financing arena, I would venture to guess that hawkish vernacular (read: consistency in the tightening bias) would shake the tape and rattle the rake.
Speaking of bitter jitters, The Carlyle Group just postponed an IPO of a mortgage fund citing uncertain market conditions. On the back of US Foodservice (and considering the $12 billion in supply ahead of July 4th), we should keep these on our radars (the Dollar General deal is next up on the radar). Psychology matters when perception is reality.
I just heard a smart fella on television opine that the Fed "must target assets prices, as they have since the Greenspan administration." Does anyone else feel like this process has now come full circle, after years of incessant denial that equity levels don't impact policy directive?
I gotta say that Rick Santelli hit the nail on the head this morning. FOMC rate policy is most certainly influenced by the foreign holders of U.S. debt. In a globalized economy, one that's been fueled by the U.S. printing press and the Yen carry trade, the decision making process is a coordinated central bank effort. We've been talking about this for years in the 'Ville and it's refreshing to see the mainstream media address the stress.
Sometimes, for schintz and giggles, I like to dip into the archives and chew through Professor Succo's Dew. I found a few good vibes (in addition to the two above), including The Land of Credit, Mr. Practical , Forced Risk and, three beauties given the current concerns regarding systematic risk, 1998, Biting the Hand That Feeds You and A Lesson from 1998.
Two questions I really Wanna Know: Is Kevin Durant the Michael Jordan of this draft and is Pepe Depew the Bill Simmons of finance?
What was "up" with the tape yesterday? Prolly some pressers at S&P 1490 coupled with short covering into the FOMC. We saw a TON of +1000 TICK readings in the afternoon, suggesting massive buy program after buy program. Fair 'nuff given the preceding carnage, although I can't help wonder who was pushing the buy buttons.
Alrightee, so S&P 1490 lives to trade another day. The udder way, for the S-Car-Go finds S&P 1507, which is the 50-day and the downtrend from the second hump of the double top.
Keeping with that reversal of fortune theme (and with a conscious nod that the sharpest rallies occur in the context of a "bear market"), the piggies find their first poke at BKX 114...then 115.40... then 116... then 118. In other words, we stair-stepped lower and we'll need to climb those flights on the way up.
Minyan Black Crowes asked me my gut on Apple into the launch. I told him that anytime I see three day lines and worldwide, non-stop coverage, my "don't believe the hype" antennae start to vibrate. I also told him that "sell the news" might be cutesy as we may need to see tepid results (vs. the whisper) before Boo chews on the downside meat.
I've got a massive Joisey mindmeld today with our brethren at TD-Ameritrade . While the thought of a sultry summer subway swelter isn't appealing -not to mention that I hate missing the FOMC-their team is top notch and the journey will be well worth it. So please forgive my intraday absence and know that I'll be back on the train track as soon as possible.
Good luck today.