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What if Help Slips, Franklin?


One of the toughest things to do in this business is smooth the process. Don't let the ups get too manic, and don't let the downs get depressive.


Poised for flight, wings spread bright
Spring from night into the sun
Don't stop to run, she can fly like a lie
She can't be outdone

(Grateful Dead)

Whataya say, Vuja De? We've got eye-popping gains in high multiple tech, the industrials splashed on the front page and all sorts of sexy, seductive stock sirens begging to be bought. Yep, it sure does feel good out there, doesn't it? As we're in the meat of earnings season and there's a lot to digest, let's chew on the dew without further adieu. Bon Apetite!

  • Here's something we haven't seen in a while--the greenback has actually gotten some green back! The DXY is up 40 bips to start the session and, not surprisingly, the uber-early commodities are dancing in Red Dye.

  • We spoke about how the dollar is an important lens and while that's a 40,000 foot perspective (and doesn't "track" every nuance), it's something to monitor as the Giddy City continues.

  • Yes, earnings are coming in better (regardless of "how," they are) and sure, tangible resistance doesn't come into play until S&P 1530-50 but given the universal belief that the upside is a given, it would be wise to see both sides of the trade. Particularly if the measuring stick begins to lift.

  • Apple, as you're well aware, roasted 2Q numbers and beat revenues. The company is "always" conservative (so it can beat next quarter, as it just did) but the third quarter guidance isn't everything Granny Smith would hope for. I love my iPod and understand that the iPhone, back-to-school and holiday season awaits (not to mention the technical acne) but heck, there is an all out orgy in the stock this morning. While this puppy hasn't had a huge run-up into this report (which would make a "sell the news" more intuitive), it seems to me that guidance could conceivably give Boo a leg to lean on. Counter-intuitive, for sure, but watch this pup as a primary tape tell if a worm starts to turn.

  • Speaking of fruity pebbles, check out the sour grapes offered by the Bank of England and the CEO of BlackRock. Not that we need to worry about stuff like this. It's "tomorrow's" problems, after all, and it's not like the market is a forward looking discounting mechanism!

  • "Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend and step off before it is discredited." George Soros, as quoted by Professor Jeff Cooper in his excellent opening missive.

  • Remember when we asked what we can do to help the folks affected by the Virginia Tech tragedy? Well, there is something. On Tuesday, May 1st, there will be an uber-fun event at the Stone Rose in NYC. And thanks, Minyans--this is what community is all about. Please contact our friends at Ken Sunshine for more information.

  • I was pinging with a friend (who runs billions of beans) late yesterday and he told me that he couldn't have been more wrong about today's tape. My response? "I'm right there with ya buddy, although you prolly have more zeros on the end of your P&L."

  • While the S&P and DJIA were up a mere percent, it felt as if it was the biggest rally in the history of mankind. The media magnification is acute, the bulls are brazen and the performance anxiety is palpable. There's no sugar coating the truth--I was wrong for the day--but it was simply a battle in a much broader war.

  • I've had alotta home runs in my career and I've had my fair share of war stories. Regardless of the hue of my skew, I've learned to toss the ball back to the mound and jog back to the dugout. One of the toughest things to do in this business is smooth the process. Don't let the ups get too manic, and don't let the downs get depressive. That's the right way to play regardless of what you see on TV.

  • I enter this session much the way I started yesterday, light and under-exposed on both sides of my pad. I did add a bit of SunMicro to the corest of cores as A) I'm not playing it for a quarter-to-quarter story and B) it's 10% cheaper than it was this morning. Not rationalizing, just sharing, and doing so with benevolent intentions.

  • Good luck Minyans, let's hit 'em hard today.


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