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Random Thoughts


If the dollar flips the upside switch and flummoxes conventional wisdom, odds are that asset classes will take it on the chin.

  • Mastercard can't hold a candle to some quality time with my grandmother. It was priceless to hear about how she and Ruby got started and the way she broke him in. It's a story for another time but that time will most definitely come.

  • Any thoughts on the new edition of Hoofy and Boo's News & Views? While I like this one, I think Thursday's edition is flat out hilarious.

  • As many Minyans know, I've been of the opinion that the dollar devaluation (33%) has fueled the global asset class rally since 2002. That's why I've been focused on "dollar devaluation vs. asset class deflation," believing the only way we can continue our run is if the greenback slack continues. In that vein and through that lens, please see the DXY (dollar index) as there are two more levels of lore before it drops to fifteen year lows.

  • You don't have to agree with it Minyans, you just have to respect it. And you also have to understand that foreign holders of US debt will only allow the greenback to drop so much. As it is, they're not enjoying gains on their war chest of dollar denominated holdings. I'd be frustrated too.

  • "Just to add two cents to Sally's observations on the dollar and the Euro, the dollar is edging closer to a potential DeMark buy signal (perhaps by the end of the week) while the Euro is nearing a sell signal." Pepe DePew on today's Buzz.

  • So, to tie it all together, IF the dollar flips the upside switch and flummoxes conventional wisdom, odds are that asset classes will take it on the chin. The path of maximum frustration likely dictates that potential slippage would occur after April paper expires this Friday.

  • In one of my missives last week, I offered that I expected some downside but respected the upside (with S&P 1450, GS 210, BKX 113.50 and HGX 218 serving as the technical toggle). My inclination was askew but my discipline saved me from turning a trip into an ugly fall. There's a lesson in that.

  • I got squeezed on my "Long Entourage/short Sopranos" trade this past weekend, with Sydney Pollack serving as a tie-breaker. It was great to see Emmanuelle get so much face time, however, as her career continues to blossom. Nice work Em.

  • With regards to the tape, my "V-shaped" risk profile is currently somewhere on the right side of that "V," with my front month S&P puts all but shot. I learned a long time ago never to sell options for less than a quarter so, for the next 3.5 sessions, they're effectively lottery tickets against my spate of core longs.

  • And, as I adjusted myself back on the saddle, I made a round of sales on my underlying longs.


    • For one, my delta on my downside momo (S&P puts) is a sliver of what it was.
    • Two, I'm not getting the best feeling from the action I'm eyeing.
    • Three, with so many earnings in the pipe and expiration on tap, there are alotta unknowns in our midst.
    • Four, I wouldn't be at all shocked to see a test of previous resistance and newfound support.
    • Five, I've got a (cough) free downside look through Friday on those Lottery puts (marked to market).
    • And six, I don't have the best feel here so I wanna take a step back, raise some powder and watch through unbiased eyes.

  • So, while I'm not consciously "betting" on an outright reversal of fortune (failure), the sale of a slew of my long side bets will allow me to prosper if one's to arrive. Better lucky than smart? Maybe, but my sales were to balance my book versus the reduced delta of my front month paper.

  • Why do I point this out? Well, with breadth flipping negative and crimson seeds sprouting in the financials--not to mention the laggage in the semis all day--a sloppy close is starting to become more probable from my humble Minyan perch.

  • Fare ye well, Mon Frere, and good luck in the muck!


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