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Random Thoughts

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Will Goldman again be the tell for the financials and, ergo, today's tape?

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  • The dollar index is bucking conventional wisdom today, rising 50 bips and challenging the short-term downtrend line. Through the lens of "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation," this should serve as a headwind for stocks.

  • Leadership, in terms of the banks and the semis (S's and N's, respectively) is a tad laggy. Nothing obscene--and Hoofy would argue that it's a healthy retracement of yesterday's gains--but it's worthy of a mention.

  • The drillers, on the back of the 3% rally in crude, are quietly approaching the December highs. Remember, this group got spanked to start the new year and they've steadily grinded higher (+19%) off the January lows.

  • "Note the U.S. Dollar Index (DX/Y) registering a TD-Sequential Buy Setup today. Gold (basis front month futures) is sitting on a TD-Sequential 12 (of a 13) potential sell signal since March 16. That puzzle fits together quite nicely with the Fed's bias shift to timid and indecisive." Pepe Depew on today's Buzz.

  • My positioning, as it stands, is consistent with what we discussed this morning. I've got a position in index puts against some core longs (which are mixed today). I would characterize my posture as "leaning short with positive gamma."

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know...

    • If charts typically reverse after gap fillage, will the VXO follow suit?

    • Ya'll seeing crude and the metals easing higher?

    • Will Goldman again be the tell for the financials and, ergo, today's tape?

    • Does anyone else miss John Candy?

    • Will I ever get used to midday meetings when the market is open?

    • Do you think Ben Bernanke curses Alan Greenspan under his breath when nobody is watching?

    • Do you see Scholastic getting schooled for 14% after missing estimates?

  • For what it's worth, a few of my sell-side brethren are telling me that they saw the larger institutions selling the financials into the teeth of yesterday's rally. I know we couldn't tell from looking at them but I thought that was an interesting nugget.

  • Motorola, Halliburton and AMD all messed the bed with pre-announcements and have, thus far, been viewed as isolated incidents. The question is begged, however, whether the market has slippy fundies priced into it.

  • The more things change for Mother Morgan, the more they stay the same.

  • "The long bond is the story of the day as the bond market sends a message that inflationist policies will not be tolerated without consequence. This is the reverse of what we saw as Elmer raised short rates. How ironic." Minyan Mark B.

  • A quick sniff of our tea leaves finds mixed nuts, with breadth, dollar, financials and emerging markets (EEM) nondescript.

  • That's about it from where I sit, for now, as I turn my attention to the cold, dry chicken sitting on my desk. I'll tell ya, after falling off and under the food wagon while in LA, I'm intent on "tripping, not falling" on my way to the summer svelte. Easier said than done, that's for sure.

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.


R.P.

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Position in financials, metals
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