Coop De 'Ville
Through a macro lens, a greenback rally may well be the death knell of this rally.
There's talk on the street; it sounds so familiar
Great expectations, everybody's watching you
People you meet, they all seem to know you
Even your old friends treat you like you're something new
It's an incredibly robust day in the 'Ville as we ready for a fresh set of flickering ticks. First and foremost, I wanna welcome Professor Jeff Cooper to the fold as our newest professor. For Minyans itchin' for actionable ideas and real-time education, Coops is just the man for the job. I've followed his work for years and now, through the magic, mojo and moxie of Minyanville, he's officially joined our family. Please join me in making him feel right at home. He's a natural fit in the city of critters!
Speaking of critters, Hoofy and Boo's latest episode aired this morning and it could be their best vette yet. We're still tweaking the particulars of the show but I think it's safe to say that the world's first animated financial news show is gaining traction across the entire media spectrum. This is a dream come true for yours truly, something that was rattling around my crowded keppe six years ago. Many thanks to Pepe Depew,
With regard to the tape-yeah, that flickering, tickering thang that continues to command major mindshare, lemme offer some scribes and vibes as we ready for another 6.5 hours of flying follicles, bare feet and maybe, just maybe, some midday sashimi.
I was having dinner with my good friend and former partner last night, taking earnings, expectation and individual situations. He's as good as it gets on the fundie front and opined that he prefers to identify disconnects between perception and reality and, rather than catch the last few points of the lift, count to ten and establish short positions. I found it interesting as he's historically pretty upbeat and optimistic in his approach. He also noted that currency gains saved the day for many of the large cap tech companies that he closely follows.
I offered to him that, through a macro lens, a greenback rally may well be the death knell of this rally. Or, put another way, while both the dollar and asset classes could conceivably sink, a lower dollar is a necessary precursor for group buoy. I'm viewing that through the lens of liquidity as "the measure formerly known as M3" continues to pump into the system. I suppose, given his observation regarding currency gains, a stronger dollar would be a double whammy for alotta companies.
China was off 4.5% last night. I understand that the sharpest corrections occur in the context of a bull market-and this uptrend is very much in tact-but as they're the dog to the stateside tail, in my most humble opinion, it warrants attention as we ready for our flickering fray.
We've got expiration tomorrow and, as per the usual dance, we'll have some unforeseen crosscurrents ripplin' through today's tape. I'm tighter (exposure) and lighter (wallet) after pairing my book, which was long situations against front month S&P puts. I rolled some of those puppies but A.D.D.'d the leaves. Just goes to show me (again) that trading requires 150% focus every moment of every day. For if you don't fix your gaze on the red and green haze, some other bird will chew your worm.
On a housekeeping note, I'm gonna be out of pocket the first week in May as I honor a promise I made to my father. He's in fragile shape these days and while there's a
LOT going on in the City of Critters, there are certain things a man must do if he's to live his life in a manner consistent with who he believes he is. Just a lil' heads up as we get set to jet with the market set.
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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