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Answers I Really Wanna Know: Aren't Recessions The Market's Nature?


Didn't mama always say not to mess with Mother Nature?

  • Bennie and the Feds assured us that they'll act "as needed" to avoid recession?

  • Aren't recessions a natural component in the cyclicality of business cycles?

  • Didn't mama always say not to mess with Mother Nature?

  • Isn't that the type of mindset (on the back of the tech bubble) that caused these imbalances to percolate in the first place?

  • Despite all that jazz-from Land Sharks to Redemption Songs to The Credit Card to The Walk on the Beach -the mainstay indices squeaked out marginal gains for the month of August?

  • Was last week, with its drop, pop and flattish performance, an encapsulation of that full circle?

  • Is that so wrong?

  • Did you see that hedge funds, with an estimated combined $1.9 trillion in assets, posted an estimated $32 billion outflow in July, which was the largest outflow since 2000 (according to Trimtabs)?

  • With 25 more days left in the 45-day redemption window, have we seen the worst of the burst?

  • Is it a coincidence that I picked up high-level chatter over the weekend that Deutsche Bank was having funding issues?

  • And woke up this morning to hear CEO Josef Ackerman offer assurances that in the last few days, "there have been signs that the markets began to stabilize and liquidity is returning but, without a doubt, some 'blocked' transactions will take some time to work through"?

  • As well as one of Europe 's most senior investment bankers, Jean-Pierre Mustier of Societe General), forecasting that the credit squeeze will ease over the next few months?

  • Was he was trying to rhyme or is that not really the French sense of humor?

  • Will Johnny Drama ever be allowed back in Canne?

  • Can you please raise your hand if you hate your inbox this morning?

  • Are you watching how the First Data (FDC) deal shapes up as a credit crunch proxy?

  • Did you notice that the S&P, from the August intraday low of 1370, rallied 100 points to an important Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%?

  • Did you know that September, down 1.2% on average, is the worst acting month over the last fifty years?

  • Did we need to see the number cuts and downgrades in the financials (as we have) before they could possibly rally?

  • But were the number cuts enough given the proprietary trading woes and the 25% sequential haircut in M&A?

  • Do you see all the central bank meetings this week, including Australia and Canada tomorrow and the UK and ECB on Thursday?

  • If you were out last week, did you circle back to the Bird's-Eye View of the Credit Conundrum?

  • How about the exchange between Minyan Peter (the "bird") and Professor Adam Katz (who, by the way, will be getting married next weekend)?

  • Will he wear a manzierre?

  • Isn't it nuts that investor psychology (including high profile pundits) trails the price action as it does?

  • Is mental illness the most misunderstood ailment in our society?

  • Are you ready for some football?!?!


No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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