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Random Thoughts


Maintain your discipline over conviction mantra, particularly when it seems like discipline is a costly proposition.

  • Maui Owie! There's nothing like a complete system meltdown as a 'welcome back' after vacation. I coulda sworn it was the remnants of jet lag but Dr. Sean Maguire walked into my digs to assure me that "It's not my fault, it's not my fault..."

  • Whose fault is it? Consistent with yesterday's Buzz, the equity malaise may very well be a function of the commodity slippage. In a correlated world--one that is awash with liquidity and operates as 'the other side of the dollar"--stocks, "stuff," emerging markets and widgets will all trade together.

  • A check of the critter compass finds market breadth 2:1 negative, the financial duopoly below resistance (BKX off 50 bips, under 118 and the XBD 1% lower, under 260).

  • With that said, the Minx is holding her ground above S&P 1498, the level that Coops De Ville is eyeing as an inflection.

  • This is the first dip in recent memory, Minyans, which means that most everyone is conditioned to nibble---bulls and bears alike. Heck, it seems like years since there's been a cascade, the back-to-back spring flings in Red Dye notwithstanding. Maintain your discipline over conviction mantra, particularly when it seems like discipline is a costly proposition.

  • The emerging markets are lower across the board today. When does this "pause that refresh" become more problematic? Below EEM 120, by my pen, if and when.

  • What's higher today? Well, the dollar, for one, which is entirely consistent with the "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" discussion we've noodled the last five years.

  • If this outlier becomes a trend--as counter-intuitive as it may seem--we've got a ways to go to retrace this dynamic.

  • If you're Buzz is blinking--as mine has at times today--simply hit F5 while yelling "ARMAGEDDON!" as loud as you can.

  • While we're watching XBD 260 as an ursine backstop, GS triple deuce (222) is worthy of a noodle as the world's most important stock retests acne support.

  • Minyan Charlie Mangano warned me that the second day back is the killer day for jet lag. I initially scoffed at his assertion but he's becoming increasingly prescient as the day wears on.

  • Mama's said there'd be days like this and right, I surely miss Mama's.


No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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