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Random Thoughts


Maintain your discipline over conviction mantra, particularly when it seems like discipline is a costly proposition.

  • Maui Owie! There's nothing like a complete system meltdown as a 'welcome back' after vacation. I coulda sworn it was the remnants of jet lag but Dr. Sean Maguire walked into my digs to assure me that "It's not my fault, it's not my fault..."

  • Whose fault is it? Consistent with yesterday's Buzz, the equity malaise may very well be a function of the commodity slippage. In a correlated world--one that is awash with liquidity and operates as 'the other side of the dollar"--stocks, "stuff," emerging markets and widgets will all trade together.

  • A check of the critter compass finds market breadth 2:1 negative, the financial duopoly below resistance (BKX off 50 bips, under 118 and the XBD 1% lower, under 260).

  • With that said, the Minx is holding her ground above S&P 1498, the level that Coops De Ville is eyeing as an inflection.

  • This is the first dip in recent memory, Minyans, which means that most everyone is conditioned to nibble---bulls and bears alike. Heck, it seems like years since there's been a cascade, the back-to-back spring flings in Red Dye notwithstanding. Maintain your discipline over conviction mantra, particularly when it seems like discipline is a costly proposition.

  • The emerging markets are lower across the board today. When does this "pause that refresh" become more problematic? Below EEM 120, by my pen, if and when.

  • What's higher today? Well, the dollar, for one, which is entirely consistent with the "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" discussion we've noodled the last five years.

  • If this outlier becomes a trend--as counter-intuitive as it may seem--we've got a ways to go to retrace this dynamic.

  • If you're Buzz is blinking--as mine has at times today--simply hit F5 while yelling "ARMAGEDDON!" as loud as you can.

  • While we're watching XBD 260 as an ursine backstop, GS triple deuce (222) is worthy of a noodle as the world's most important stock retests acne support.

  • Minyan Charlie Mangano warned me that the second day back is the killer day for jet lag. I initially scoffed at his assertion but he's becoming increasingly prescient as the day wears on.

  • Mama's said there'd be days like this and right, I surely miss Mama's.


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