Another Ten Years Of Growth
Base metals, precious metals, uranium, energy, alternative energy, water supplies, food and building materials still hold bullish opportunities as the demand side of the equation alone is huge.
It is a pleasure to be part of the Minyanville community where I will be sharing views on the natural resource sector and commodity futures. As with all of the professors here I share a passion for the markets, an instinct to educate, a desire to write with clarity and an appreciation of the zany crowd behavior we witness everyday.
My career began at the Chicago Board of Trade in 1979 where I "cut my teeth" on the trading floor in the corn pit. In 1989 I made the transition off the floor and began trading the S&P, interest rate futures, metals and the agricultural markets. Currently, as an independent trader, I position trade natural resource stocks and commodities and day trade the mini S&P and Russell using Market Profile data. Teaching is also a love of mine as I mentor new traders and back those who show the interest and commitment.
I am of the belief that we are starting a second leg in the commodity bull market with plenty of upside potential. Having just returned from the Natural Resource Summit of the Americas, a conference held in the Bahamas, I am more convinced that dwindling supplies and growing demand in many of the individual commodities will keep this sector out performing. Base metals, precious metals, uranium, energy, alternative energy, water supplies, food and building materials still hold bullish opportunities as the demand side of the equation alone is huge.
Consider this – we currently have one billion people using two thirds of the word's natural resources and 5.6 billion people using the other one third. It is this latter group that is moving up the wealth ladder with an insatiable demand for "stuff." Last year alone, China bought more cars than the US and this trend, as well as others will continue to fuel the market.
The last commodity bull market lasted only nine years, from 1971-1980 and many people mistakenly compare this current bull market to that period and deduce that it is about over. However, looking at data going back to the 1700's shows that typical commodity bull market cycles last between 18-23 years. We could possibly have another 10 years of growth in this sector.
Going forward I plan to share news, insights, chart formations and both a macro and micro picture of this changing world of resources. It is an exciting time to be involved in this market and with current war cycles, weather cycles and an explosion of demand for "the good life" from across the globe this will be anything but dull. Volatility and a proliferation of new products to capitalize on this sector will paint the landscape and make it both rewarding and challenging. Corrections will occur along the way, but stay on your toes and keep an eye on the big picture.
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