Buzz Bits: Dow Nasdaq Head Higher
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Earnings Report - MV News
- Bob Evans (BOBE) reports 4Q EPS of $0.42 vs. $0.37 cons on revs of $418.4 mln vs. $409.7 mln cons.
Bell Buzz - Todd Harrison - 3:41 PM
- In like a sacrificed lamb and out like a...chop? Yeah, the collective assessment is that China's heretofore 15% correction is healthy and necessary. The stateside action would imply that it is...so far...which is surprising to those of us who believe that they're the dog to the global tail.
- Mr. Saut, for his money, will offer that "the markets never discount the same thing twice and February 27 (-416 DJIA points) was the discounting mechanism for the Chinese crash."
- That goes to show why I hate disagreeing with the savvy soothsayer although, I must say, it'll be interesting to see how much of a Shanghai pullback the bulls can withstand before Boo pulls out a Chinese "for sale" menu.
- I give mas snaps to my brother for becoming a volunteer fireman and EMT (in training). Blazes like the one he fought last night, however, freak me out a little bit.
- From a pure "tell" standpoint, today was a non-event. In the context of the overseas action, however, Hoofy has to feel good about the Flatliner. For and with my money, I continue to keep my cards close to my vest and tighten the horizon on my trading tries. I've been too cautious (and quite busy) but opportunities are made up easier than losses.
- With regard to Macke's Buzz below, it just goes to show you that timing is everything and foresight is sometimes a hindrance. I've long thought that Blockbuster was a ghost-in-training on the mere prospect of VOD.
- Alas, the Mondays are almost over. Which is nice. I hope this finds you well, warm, dry and mindful as we fit together the pieces of a most interesting world.
A logarithmic look at 10's and 30's... - Bennet Sedacca - 11:33 AM
I got to thinking about the charts I was using for 10 year yields and 30 year bond futes. And I realized (I hate to admit it) I was looking at things the wrong way. For trends that are THAT long term in nature, log charts are preferred. So here goes.
See the log chart of 10 year yields.
See the log chart of 30 year futes (you could argue they have already broken...).
And just for grins, take a look at the S&P Super composite Homie Index. One could argue that the last thing a bunch of over leveraged companies (homies) with their potential buyers also over leveraged(consumers) would want is higher rates.
Let's Get Small - Ryan Krueger - 10:47 AM
On Saturday, Barron's profiled General Electric (GE) in a sum of the parts piece. Three days before, I had mentioned on the TD Ameritrade Apex Conference call a bit of the same case. So if Dow Jones' (DJ) media empire, including Barron's, is worth more than $5 billion; one can only wonder, how much is Hoofy and Boo's news desk worth?
I actually like Pepe Depew's idea on that call better than my own, and so far, his scoop is worth a lot more as he shared a possible setup for Wal-Mart (WMT) with ye Apex faithful. A quick time-out of unsolicited feedback - if you are a member, you know what I mean when I say what a great job Dave Whitmore does on those calls to pull the covers back on the markets. I'm impressed. Plenty of "full service" firms do nothing of the sort. Perhaps that is one of the many reasons that the day of the call, TD Ameritrade (AMTD) hit an all-time high and can probably take more market share (I buzzed about Toronto Dominion Bank's (TD) ownership stake in AMTD in early May).
A few weeks ago, I commented to Pepe about a pairs trade idea of WMT with the Retail Holdrs (RTH). If you ever wonder why, when certain retail is getting beat up, the RTH doesn't roll over as much as bears would like; make sure you carefully deconstruct all of these ETF's first.
Wal-Mart makes up a boat tilting 16%+ of the RTH and Home Depot (HD) another 14%+, perhaps rendering it less of a volatile trading vehicle than both bulls and bears would like. Few retail specialists think Wal-Mart or Home Depot will lead a sharp rally and fewer bears want to short Wal-Mart or Home Depot in size at these levels. You can solve these stubborn components of the ETF by stripping them out of your desired directional trade, if you want to make one by going long or short Wal-Mart and Home Depot in a pairs trade with the RTH, capturing the rest of the group.
Soon, I'll share why I became re-interested in all three of these stocks for the first time in a very long time. I have to make sure I actually believe my own ideas first, because they are the exact opposite of what I have been doing for the past five years. Hint: Could certain Large Caps finally beat Small Caps if they cheat the law of large numbers? As Steve Martin said, "Let's Get Small."
Positions in GE, WMT, HD
The Shadow Knows - Jeffrey Cooper - 9:34 AM
- Were those telltale tracks on Baidu.com (BIDU) on Friday, gapping up on the third day of spikeage but reversing to close red on the day?
- Boeing (BA), which has been one of the DJIA leaders, shows the same pattern from Friday.
- Interesting, in light of Fridays broad market strength. Maybe it's just happenstance.
- There is a change in character in the Chinese market as it is following through from last week's sell off. Follow through is the key.
- Although Hong Kong and Japan did not follow, and although the U.S. shrugged off the decline in China last week, it is important to remember they are one of the US' bankers.
- It will be interesting to see if we find another low immediately as occurred last Wednesday.
- Only a break of 1530 S&P based on the hourly support will suggest lower prices. See the chart here.
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