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Random Thoughts


Was last week's Post-China Snapper a prelude to this week's trapper? Or is this deja vu all over again?

  • With today's five deals, US-based M&A is on pace for a trillion dollar '07 run rate. About 35% of the deals, thus far, have been buy-outs, which is retiring alotta market cap and reducing supply.

  • Tricks of the Trade: Stocks that open flat with down (up) futures indicated underlying demand (supply). Today, those early eyes spied the drillers (which remain overbought), homies, select semis and retail.

  • The knee jerk reaction to China's downside ride has been buy first and ask questions later (if at all). Indeed, despite the 15% pullback in Shanghai (since the stamp tax was raised), the Matador Crowd is standing proud.

  • The greenback is off 35 bips today, breaking the near-term uptrend and setting the stage for a retest of DXY 80.5-81.5ish. While we could see a lower dollar and lower equities, my sense remains that the only way we'll see higher equities is with a lower greenback.

  • Mainstay tells, including the internals and financials, aren't offering much of an edge.

  • Work to live. Don't live to work.

  • BKX 118 remains a level of lore, a lonely non-confirmation in an otherwise jiggy landscape.

  • I'm not married and don't have kids (yet). Still, watching my niece hit for the hat trick in her youth soccer game this weekend planted solid seeds of what I've got to look forward to.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: I have been watching the Shanghai selloff and something interesting has been going on over the past week. Some of the stocks (approx. 25%) on the exchange have been down 10% nearly every day since last Tuesday causing them to lose approx. 40% of their value. The index level was not hurt that bad, but the breadth and depth of the decline for many stocks was very interesting and different than the Feb. one day wonder. It looks like we need to go lower to find a bid for about 30% of the stocks as they were limit down for most of the day Friday and little to no volume traded. What I want to know is, is the Chinese government going to support the market and create a bid in some of these stocks at some point? -Minyan Mark

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know…

    • How sick--and I mean SICK--was the King's game five performance?

    • Was last week's Post-China Snapper a prelude to this week's trapper?

    • Or is this deja vu all over again?

    • Are you watching Goldman (GS)--the world's most important stock--as it's stuck in the Red Dye mud?

    • Will the soggy performance of Goldman's Alpha Fund dampen earnings for the brokerage giant?

    • As go the financials, so goes the tape?

    • Will today's WSJ feature section on ETF's somehow mark a top in the proliferation of ETFs?

    • Does XBD 260 still "matter" for the brokers on the heels of AG Edwards (skew) and in front of the upcoming earnings avalanche?

    • Why doesn't John Cusack appear in more movies?

    • Or Ed Norton for that matter?

    • Are the 10-1 odds I just took on Gore sneaking into the race a silly bet?

    • Why can't I shake the sense that NWS could effectively synthesize, monetize and justify the DJ properties and its $5 billion price tag?

    • But how many staffers would they lose in the process?


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