Doin' It Bloggystyle: Random Alyssa Milano, Trading Rules, Naming Names...
Minyanville brings together the best of what they are saying "out there" about the topics we're talking about right here.
Blogs themselves need no introduction, as they get as much publicity as pretty much anything these days, save maybe the latest Britney news. There's an expanding world of excellent financial blogs, covering pretty much everything from global economics to swing trading. Minyanville's goal is to bring together the best of what they are saying "out there" about the topics we're talking about right here.
...Hey, she even has a blog.
Some thoughts on the VIX Bubble
- Doesn't strike me as the optimal time to buy June paper.
- Bill at VIX and More notes the volatility of the VIX itself is actually on the tame side.
- Steve Smith on Real Money wonders if the VIX is suggesting an imminent lurch in prices.
Who Wants Some Trading Rules?
- Rule #1, don't go rule crazy says Stock Bee.
- Maybe not the macro rules, but the micro ones, points out Bullish Jim.
- I have to agree with the premise. You need a mix of discipline and flexibility of thinking. There is no simple "if X happens than do Y" formula that always works.
And How About Naming Some Names?
- ValuePlays looks at CSX Corp. (CSX).
- Crocs (CROX) is ready for a rest, says Jordan.
- How about some SPACS (special purpose acquisition companies) via Fly. (Viewer Discretion Advised, may contain adult language, lol)
How About This as an Arb?
- The *market* gives the Yankees a 28% chance of winning the AL East, as per Tradesports.
- But the stats, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus, say their chances are more like 3.87%. (Hat Tip Steve at Value Blog Revue).
- How they do that? They take all the available data from this season and simulate the remainder of the sked for each team, a million times. By computer I presume, otherwise that's a lot of Strato-matic dice to roll (I could only get a few games in a night as a kid, and that involved outsourcing any actual homework, lol).
- That all assumes the Yankees play as they do now. But what if you incorporate some projections in as well?
- Not sure I totally understand the math behind it, but BP gives us this. And lo and behold the Yankees chances shoot up to 24.7%.
- What's interesting though is that the betting market assumes the Yankees *revert to the mean* and then some.
- I think there's an analogy for the VIX here somewhere. Historical volatility is the Yankees' play so far this season. Implied is the *betting market*, the estimate of their play going forward. And right now, that's overly optimistic. Much like the VIX.
- So would I *short* the Yankees. Not a chance, lol. Same way S&P options are technically overpriced, but not exactly a raging sale here.
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