Ticker Shock: Four Reasons Why I'm Not Lovin' McDonald's

I was thinking about a good way to take my stress level down a notch during the day. Every time the reporters on CNBC say the words “stress test” or “TARP,” I take a drink. Kidding folks - and don’t try this at home!

Asian stock closed in positive territory. The Hang Seng was up 1% and the Nikkei ended half a percent higher. Meanwhile, European stocks were in the green as well, earlier this morning. And here in the US, we're currently trading higher.

Here’s what I’m seeing on this fine Friday morning:

McDonald's (MCD):
 The company turned in yet another month of solid comps. In April, they were up a swell 6.9%. 

But should we be looking at Mickey D’s right now?

1. Note that the stock has lost some of its luster in recent months.

2. Full-service chains ala Darden (DRI) and Brinker (EAT) have been getting some love.

3. With consumers a bit more optimistic, their Dollar Menu may not look as attractive.

4. The competition for those in a rush and looking to save coin, is tough. Consider Starbucks' (SBUX) pairings deal.

I don’t want to dis Ronald, but his apple seems to have lost some shine.

American International Group (AIG):
 The once high-flying insurer that’s made a metric ton of headlines over the last month or so released its first-quarter earnings.

The good news that everybody's reporting this morning: The loss was “narrower.” And to be fair, that’s true. It put up a loss of $4.35 billion, whereas it lost $61.7 billion in the fourth quarter. 

But there's not much to cheer about here. What's so terrific - that it didn’t go under? That it could get a lift if the market gets a goose today?

These guys still have a bunch of things going against them, as far as I’m concerned:

1. They trade under $5 and I don’t think that analysts far and wide are going to be flocking toward them anytime soon.

2. I haven’t taken any scientific polls, but I’m thinking more than a few people out there don’t hold AIG in the highest regard right now.

3. It’s expected to put up just $0.12 a share this year. 

4. There are probably a lot of anxious shareholders that would bail at the slightest stumble. Plus, I think we could see some hefty tax-loss selling later in the year. (Yeah, I know - I may be getting ahead of myself.) 

5.  Even if things were hunky dory, don’t you think it would take the average investor a few quarters to really warm to this story, given the headlines they’ve seen and the whipping the stock has taken over the past year or so?

Although I’d love to see a comeback and I’m rooting for gutsy AIG shareholders, I’m not looking to become one of them.