Monday Morning Quarterback: Let the Games Begin!
Traders return to a dose of reality.
Good morning Minyans and welcome back to the flickering pack. After the sun and fun of a three-day holiday respite, we power up this freaky pup to find a wallowing world. Europe is awash in a crimson slide, China is reeling from riots and stateside futures are taking it on the chin. Did you have a nice weekend? Good, 'cause the bloom is about to fade from the rose of relaxation in a big way.
Before I shift focus to my 2009 half-time missive (which I've been admittedly lax on), I'll offer some early vibage in no particular order:
- The one theme I wish I was wrong on this year? The migration of societal acrimony to social unrest to geopolitical strife. The weekend woes in Honduras and China speak to the growing tension around the world. Breathe, people.
- Over the last few weeks, we've been offering that Hoofy had a window of opportunity into quarter-end and through the first few days of the month (in the context of steadfast communication that we're likely traversing the widow's peak of a "W" pattern). With that now behind us, the likelihood that S&P 956 was the widow inceases in kind.
- Of course, with the screens no longer green, we can expect calls for further government spending to "boost" the economy. That's the problem with sucking on the teet of stimulus. Once you've got a mouthful of money, it's tough to ween yourself back to a truly free market.
- And I suppose this fella would be the antithesis of that?
- Remember when the mainstream media lambasted those who dared posit that lower crude was negative for equities (and vice versa)? My how times have changed. Through that lens, please see the 4% drop in Texas Tea this morning and take a moment to digest "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" as a see-saw of note.
- And lest you thought it was just China and Russia who are fed up with the dollar as the world reserve currency, think again. India is none-too-happy either.
- Minyan Doug Kass and I ventured to the East Hampton playground on Friday in search of a hoops game. We found it, took on a pair of youngsters 20 years our junior and proceeded to notch a "W" of our own. The final play of the game? The "Hoofy and Boo Switcheroo" as I drove the basket, waited for the defense to collapse and hit Dougie with a nifty behind-the-head no-look bounce pass that he nailed for a game winning 18-foot jumper. Well done, my friend (and yes, I'm still hurting too).
- Now She's a Minyan! Please join us in welcoming the always saucy and very savvy Karen Salmansohn to our fold!
- While everyone and their sister will be watching S&P 887 (200-day moving average), the level of lore is S&P 875 (from where we broke out, as past resistance is future support). If that level holds today, it could pave the way for a Turnaround Tuesday Snapper (in the context of the aforementioned "W"). One step at a time, I just wanted to plant the seed.
- Some stocks for ye radar? FedEx (FDX) (reaction to positive pontification), the semicaps (KLA-Tencor (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), Novellus (NVLS)) off the CS First Boston upgrade and Research in Motion (RIMM), which is down a scant 70 cents in a sloppy pre-market tape (you can learn a lot just by watching).
- Dr. John Hussman weighs in on the inflation debation.
- Memoirs of a Minyan Chapter 5: An Officer and a Gentleman will be unleashed Wednesday (or Tuesday night, for those on board the Minyanville Underground Railroad) and the story starts to heat up. I would venture to guess that some people outside the 'Ville who look at this as a snapshot rather than a movie will not get the over-arching theme. Comes with the territory I s'pose...
- A'ight, I've gotta get moving on the 2009 half-time report. On behalf of the entire staffage at MVHQ, I wish you a very prosperous back nine. Hit 'em hard, hit 'em straight and remember that profitability begins within.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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