Dollar Torn Apart By Bears
By Mike Mish Shedlock Jun 02, 2009 10:00 am
Speculative bets against greenback highest since July 2008.
Anti-dollar sentiment is again running rampant: Please consider this article, from the Financial Times, which discusses how speculative bets against the dollar have risen to their highest level since the onset of the financial crisis. Positioning data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, often used as a proxy for hedge-fund activity, showed that in the week ending May 19, bets against the dollar -- short positions -- versus the euro, exceeded bets on dollar strength by 12,250 contracts.
This net short position was the highest level since the week of July 15, when the dollar hit a record low of $1.6038 against the euro.
Ashraf Laidi at CMC Markets said considering that long positions in the euro and yen against the dollar were still about 11 times lower than their record highs, speculators had plenty of upside against the dollar in terms of quantity as well as price.
Dollar Bears with an Ugly American Accent
Professor James Kostohryz offered his thoughts on the dollar on Monday. It’s well worth another look. (All emphases in following passage mine.)
"One of the things that has always puzzled me is how it is that perma-bears that are forever predicting the demise of the US Dollar never speak about any other problem other than the ones in the US. It's as if the US were the only country that had any problems.
"Truth be told, my long experience with these folks has been that the vast majority of them simply don't know much of anything about foreign countries, and even less about foreign currencies and interest rates.
"The fact is that economic fundamentals in the US, and the fundamentals of the US financial system in particular, are much better on average than in the vast majority of other industrialized countries. Inexplicably, although the value of the dollar is measured against other currencies, the bears never even seem to fathom this.
"Next time you run across one of these dollar Cassandras, please ask them to tell you the names of the currencies that the Dollar's going to decline against, and to please speak to you in detail about the relative fundamentals of these nations. Ask them about sovereign debt ratios. Ask them about external debt ratios. Ask them about bank capitalization ratios. My experience has been that when you pose this question to the perma-bears, it usually elicits a long pause and empty stare.
"For example, none of the Dollar bears that were getting all lathered up last week about how rising Treasury yields were signaling the Demise of America appeared to have any clue that rates were rising all over the world.
"Indeed, yields on many equivalent European bonds, including the Bunds, rose by even greater amounts.
This net short position was the highest level since the week of July 15, when the dollar hit a record low of $1.6038 against the euro. Ashraf Laidi at CMC Markets said considering that long positions in the euro and yen against the dollar were still about 11 times lower than their record highs, speculators had plenty of upside against the dollar in terms of quantity as well as price.
Dollar Bears with an Ugly American Accent
Professor James Kostohryz offered his thoughts on the dollar on Monday. It’s well worth another look. (All emphases in following passage mine.)
"One of the things that has always puzzled me is how it is that perma-bears that are forever predicting the demise of the US Dollar never speak about any other problem other than the ones in the US. It's as if the US were the only country that had any problems.
"Truth be told, my long experience with these folks has been that the vast majority of them simply don't know much of anything about foreign countries, and even less about foreign currencies and interest rates.
"The fact is that economic fundamentals in the US, and the fundamentals of the US financial system in particular, are much better on average than in the vast majority of other industrialized countries. Inexplicably, although the value of the dollar is measured against other currencies, the bears never even seem to fathom this.
"Next time you run across one of these dollar Cassandras, please ask them to tell you the names of the currencies that the Dollar's going to decline against, and to please speak to you in detail about the relative fundamentals of these nations. Ask them about sovereign debt ratios. Ask them about external debt ratios. Ask them about bank capitalization ratios. My experience has been that when you pose this question to the perma-bears, it usually elicits a long pause and empty stare. "For example, none of the Dollar bears that were getting all lathered up last week about how rising Treasury yields were signaling the Demise of America appeared to have any clue that rates were rising all over the world.
"Indeed, yields on many equivalent European bonds, including the Bunds, rose by even greater amounts.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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2009-06-02 10:20:20
Very Good
It is agreat reminder to the fact that all fiat is printing and goosing like mad. That is whay maybe the "stuff' ag trade works better than a straight dollar bear trade. Thanks to Kosty and Mish.
2009-06-02 11:25:31
yep
Finally. Someone said it. The RMB is not going to be the world's reserve currency. Not only because of financial reasons but governmental stability as well. One hiccup from the communist leaders and the country would be in shambles.
The RMB floating is the best point. If the RMB floats look for Fed Manipulation.
The RMB floating is the best point. If the RMB floats look for Fed Manipulation.
2009-06-02 11:45:18
if nothing else
there's reversion to the mean (for the dollar)
but i've seen some of those reports on the "health" of many of the european banks, and their debts loads
won't be nice, either way i think
it's good that both you and james (kostohryz) are speaking up with other views of the dollar
thanks!
but i've seen some of those reports on the "health" of many of the european banks, and their debts loads
won't be nice, either way i think
it's good that both you and james (kostohryz) are speaking up with other views of the dollar
thanks!
2009-06-02 16:02:21
It is mostly cycnical posturing
Most people who react with great alarm at the pronouncements of China on Treasuries and the US Dollar as reserve currency are typically doing so for political reasons.
They get to say, "See what I said about running deficits? Now you got China mad."
They ignore the degree to which China is no situation to either dump Treasuries or demand alternative reserve curency.
Chinese demands in this regard deserve the utmost scorn we can summon.
The Chinese need to stop pegging their curreny to the US dollar before raising the subject of alternative currency.
They get to say, "See what I said about running deficits? Now you got China mad."
They ignore the degree to which China is no situation to either dump Treasuries or demand alternative reserve curency.
Chinese demands in this regard deserve the utmost scorn we can summon.
The Chinese need to stop pegging their curreny to the US dollar before raising the subject of alternative currency.
2009-06-03 11:07:18
China's stimulus
Mike, you commented, "China passed a $586 billion stimulus package. For the size of China's economy, $586 billion is quite massive. That stimulus went directly into production. And if the global economy doesn't pick up to support Chinese exports, China may easily overheat."
I understood that the stimulus was directed to infrastructure build-out. If so, wouldn't the spending be less dependent on global consumption returning to avoid the stimulus causing the chinese econoy to overheat?
I understood that the stimulus was directed to infrastructure build-out. If so, wouldn't the spending be less dependent on global consumption returning to avoid the stimulus causing the chinese econoy to overheat?
2009-06-03 11:13:59
China's stimulus
proper thought, wrong that govt wouldn't blow it
everyone ramped up to meet 'expected' demand again.
then why is china REJECTING iron ore contracts as NOT GOOD ENOUGH??
No REAL demand
everyone ramped up to meet 'expected' demand again.
then why is china REJECTING iron ore contracts as NOT GOOD ENOUGH??
No REAL demand
2009-06-04 08:31:39
I am a little disappointed in Professor's James Kostohryz statements. It seems that he states what 15 smaller independent central banks do will have an effect on the dollar market when the 2 largest central banks can squash them. When asked what other options China has to invest in, they stated there is the Euro and commodities. Now, if China begins to dump billions into commodities to build their infrastructure etc., prices for goods will increase while the dollar and America overall suffers. If oil and metals spike up it would put a heavy burden on the US consumer. James Kostohryz doesn't seem to see that.
2009-06-04 08:31:39
I am a little disappointed in Professor's James Kostohryz statements. It seems that he states what 15 smaller independent central banks do will have an effect on the dollar market when the 2 largest central banks can squash them. When asked what other options China has to invest in, they stated there is the Euro and commodities. Now, if China begins to dump billions into commodities to build their infrastructure etc., prices for goods will increase while the dollar and America overall suffers. If oil and metals spike up it would put a heavy burden on the US consumer. James Kostohryz doesn't seem to see that.
2009-06-11 00:04:51
Yes
I tried to point those things out in my response to James K's posting.
The big players are a lot more important than the little ones.
The big players are a lot more important than the little ones.
2009-11-26 22:30:13
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