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Random Thoughts: The Thing About Trading Is...

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By the time the economic statistics validate a recession, the market, as a leading indicator, will have already priced it in.

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  • Whiskey Chaser?

  • Running Down a Dream? Just to toss it out there as I listen to the non-stop debate over whether or not the FOMC cuts rates, the bulls should be careful of what they wish for.

  • I remember the same prevalent psychology in 2001, the perceived panacea that is lower rates. It eventually worked, I suppose (if you measure "working" by stock prices as opposed to dollar-denominated returns or debt accumulation) but it took some time-and much lower prices-before it kicked in.

  • NYSE internals have been curiously strong all session. Not curious as in "there's something going on," curious in that I would have thought they would act worse with the piggies as punk as they were. Hands over eyes, it's a bullish whisper.

  • Between the incessant internal melds (President Fish is out next week, that lucky duck, so there's alotta circlin' to do), a very long week (fried green Toddo) and a whole lotta preppin' ahead of our packed Q4, I've been "in touch with" my turret all day.

  • Still, given the fact that A) it's so thin, B) emotions are high, C) agendas are in play, D) I've got on risk, I'm trying to keep close tabs on the tape. That's the thing with trading--you're chained to your turret every single day the ticks flicker and the critters bicker. Somewhere out there, lives are waiting to be lived.

  • Pretty Sneaky Sis! Watch Lehman now that it has sneaked into Matador City (we flagged it on the Buzz when it flipped the Matador switch). And balance that against the slimming finski in Countrywide (-5%) and fresh smoke in Barclays (BCS).

  • Social networking for spies? Isn't it ironic (don't you think)?

  • By the time the economic statistics validate a recession, the market, as a leading indicator, will have already priced it in.

  • Raise your hand if you wanna petition John Thain to close the market right now!

  • Levels of Lore for traders galore? Uh, right here in the S&P (trendline above, 200-day below) and the banks (BKX pennant chase).

  • If Jamie Lee Curtis isn't all over this as a spokeswomen…

  • Crude is back above $70/brl? Inflation in things we need, deflation in things we want. Yeah.

  • It's thinner than Allie McBeal out there so be careful Minyans. Anyone with an agenda will be able to push this tape around as they wish. I know, I know -- who would do such a thing !?!

  • Tomorrow at this time, Television's JeffMacke® will be scooping me up for the sojourn east, where we'll connect with Dr. Kass on the east end and Mr. Petty in the evening. Petty? With friends? To wind up the summer? Done, done and done. If Minyans have an interest , by the way, they can email Joe for dets.

  • Minyan Mailbag

    Todd,

    The late day rallies are asset mix programs mostly from big pension plans. They wait for the last hour to get the positive mark on the books from the VWAP of the program. 3% short term treasuries don't cut it so they sell the bonds and buy other "stuff".

    I see the short term bullish flag too but we are also back up to the neckline on many stocks and indices. Wouldn't it be perfect if the pennant breaks bullishly into the fed meeting then reverses lower? Isn't the psychology for Boo now to wait for the Fed to cut and then make a stand?


    Cheers,

    Minyan James


    MJ,

    Thank you for this, brother---yes, asset alligators are certainly possible (as were the other buyers mentioned).

    As for the banks, they've been the tell for as long as I can remember (not saying much, I know) and I'm watching 'em break the pennant as we speak (I can't imagine the Countrywide Financial (CFC) negative finski is helping matters much).

    The risk for those trading S&P's (hand raised) is tracking risk. In other words, if money rotates instead of migrates. I don't foresee that happening (in a finance-based, interwoven marketplace) but it's possible I suppose.

    As for your playbook, a smart man once said that you can pick the direction or you can pick the timing but you'll rarely nail both. That has always stuck with me as sage advice and I'll pass it along with hopes that it helps.

    Good luck, and good trading!

    Toddo

  • Good luck Minyans-let's end this week with some jingle in our jeans and a smile on our puss!


R.P.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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