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Freaky Friday Potpourri: Storm Weather


Will inclement conditions outside mirror the markets?


Thunder only happens when it's raining
Players only love you when they're playing
(Fleetwood Mac)

Good morning and welcome back to the inclement track. From showers in the West to blizzards in the East to tornado warnings in the South, the final fifth of our freaky week has arrived with some rude 'tude. It remains to be seen if the minxy morass will manifest as a function of that.

Yesterday, we discussed the potential for a massive move as a function of the disparity between the credit markets and the equity space. Today, as seen in the C-section of the Wall Street Journal, that wishbone wonder has become front-page news.

To be sure, headlines often serve as a rear-view mirror rather than a forward-looking prognostication. We all remember the harrowing front-page splash in the New York Times the week of Martin Luther King's birthday. It was loud, it was scary and it proceeded to set lows which have held to this day.

The point isn't to poke holes in conventional media. Quite the contrary, the more folks know about the ever-changing dynamics in this multidimensional market, the better prepared they'll be. But the market is a movie, not a snapshot, and the fluidity of these moves makes timing this tussle tricky to tackle.

Take a deep breath, settle into your seat and let's see if we can finish this fray with some jingle in our jeans and a smile on our puss. And buck up Yo!

In seven short hours, we'll be dialed into the weekend!

Random Thoughts

  • Meredith Whitney, the Oppenheimer analyst who nailed the travails of the banking sector when nobody wanted to listen, has said that Citigroup (C) needs to cut its dividend more and, through a broader lens, she believes financial stocks could fall 15% to 50% from current levels.

  • Last night, Interfax news agency reported Moscow's envoy to the military alliance said Russia could resort to "brute force" if Nato or the European Union defy the U.N. on Kosovo.

  • Why can't we all just get along?

  • If you're looking for 40 of the sharpest minds on Wall Street chewing through the daily dew in real-time, you've gotta check out the free trial of Minyanville's Buzz & Banter. It's that good.

  • It's SnowMass... or Mas Snow... in Gotham and this Minyan has chosen to operate today from the warm and toasty confines of Chez Harrison. Be forewarned, if you see a "qqrpeugqeqgfdlq" Buzz, it's likely a function of an odd feline's sense of humor.

  • Takeaways from yesterday? A bellyache (Haagen Daz), equity weakness in the face of a sloppy dollar, smokey financials, Marcel Marceau volume, a nosty, fugly Philly Fed, 5:1 negative breadth in the Russell and a general malaise that only the genius possess and insane lament.

  • The S&P has failed four times at 1365 over the last seven sessions and bounced three times at 1340. See both sides while keeping half an eye on that seemingly stubborn pennant.

  • Everyone continues to wait for any sort of clarity on the bond insurers Either the deadlines for the downgrades or the announcement of a plan are supposed to occur this week or next.

  • Nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 percent of the total, are underwater on their mortgages (that are higher than the value of their homes).

  • Confused on this whole hyperinflation, stagflation, deflation thang? Pepe's tremendous 5 Things from yesterday is the best tutorial that I've read on the subject. Period.

  • The INDU flag is perhaps the best illustration of the technical patterns I'm looking at but truth be told, most all indices are in the same boat.

  • The fact that yesterday's slippage occurred in the context of a lower dollar was perhaps the most disconcerting aspect of it all.

  • I didn't really mind that Minyan Editor Terry Woo was blasting Mandy this week. The fact that he wore this very same outfit to MVHQ yesterday is a bit disconcerting however.

  • Lest you had any doubt which side of the ride our policy makers prefer, check out this chart.

  • A move through DXY 74.80 would confirm a fresh low for the US dough.

  • OK, we're 20 critters away from Minyanland 10,000. Who will it be? And when will we put another zero on that?

  • As traders, the destination isn't as important as the path that we take to get there.

  • I saw No Country for Old Men and thought it was one of the worst movies I've ever seen. Just goes to show how much I know.

  • Good luck Yo. I'll see YOU on the Buzz & Banter.


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