Op-Ed: As Goes GM, So Goes the Nation

By Minyanville Staff Feb 26, 2009 9:15 am
Decline of largest automaker is cautionary tale.
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Editor's Note: James Quinn is a senior director of strategic planning for a major university. James has held high-level financial positions with a retailer, homebuilder and a university in his 22-year career.

General Motors (GM) was founded in 1908 in Flint, Michigan and grew to be the largest corporation in the world. In 2000, its market capitalization was $50 billion; in the past week, that dropped below $1 billion - levels unseen since the 1920s.

In 1953, at the peak of its dominance, GM president Charles Wilson told Congress that what was good for the country was good for GM (and vice versa). And its fate still seems to parallel that of the nation as a whole.

GM’s market share peaked at almost 50% in the 1960s, and reached an historic low of 19.5% in January. Their sales plummeted 49% from a year ago. GM has too much debt, too much bureaucracy, too many plants, too many car lines, too many employees, and too many future healthcare and pension obligations.

After decades of mismanagement, the only way out is for GM to enter a pre-packaged bankruptcy, with financing provided by the US government if bank financing is unavailable. Shareholders and bondholders will be wiped out. They made a bad investment. Plants will be closed, UAW contracts restructured, management replaced, employees fired, debt written off, and future obligations reduced. A much smaller viable company that can compete in the twenty-first century would exit bankruptcy in a year or 2. A profitable, low market share is preferable to a high market share with billions in loses.

The decline of GM is a testament to how poor strategic decisions over the course of decades will ultimately lead to collapse. The United States has followed the GM model of failure for the last 3 decades: Too much debt, too much bureaucracy, too many government-supported industries, too many agencies, too many employees, and $53 trillion of unfunded future liabilities. Can the US avoid GM’s fate, or is it too late? If we can learn the important lessons of the GM decline, it might not be too late to reverse our course.

Or we can continue on the current path and follow the advice of Will Rogers: “If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can’t it get us out?”

Alfred P. Sloan created the concept of annual style changes to keep consumers coming back, along with a pricing structure for each of GM’s brands, from lowest to highest (Chevrolet, Pontiac, Oldsmobile, Buick and Cadillac). He was a pioneer who drove GM to become the largest and most profitable industrial enterprise the world had ever known.

In the midst of the Great Depression, Mr. Sloan -- a smart, realistic businessman unfazed by the Roaring 20s -- was able to keep General Motors profitable. Only an executive like Sloan would be able to speak the following words:

“If we are all in agreement on the decision - then I propose we postpone further discussion of this matter until our next meeting to give ourselves time to develop disagreement and perhaps gain some understanding of what the decision is all about.”
No positions in stocks mentioned.

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(9)
2009-02-26 06:45:45
Good article
The Chinese are not stupid. They are using their declining dollars to buy Rio Tinto, oil, and other commodity companies. They are converting their surpluses because they see what we are trying to do to them.
2009-02-26 09:49:45
This is a CLASSIC case of not understanding the problem.
GM's manage should be like our management. Perception is reality AND if you don't know you're broke, you NOT!

So, I would recommend that GM's management should start levelsetting their tablesteaks and orchestrating their synergistic holistic growth while leveraging their core-competencies in a going-forward space (of course, goes without saying). Jeez (in the non-wikipeda sense), doesn't GM have an IT department? They need to put IT in charge. Nobody can levelset the tablesteaks like IT management. 10 our 10 IT managers orchestrate their holistic growth (I saw this on an airport ad, must be true).
2009-02-26 09:51:30
This is a classic case of not understand what the REAL problem is.
GM's manage should be like our management. Perception is reality AND if you don't know you're broke, you NOT!

So, I would recommend that GM's management should start levelsetting their tablesteaks and orchestrating their synergistic holistic growth while leveraging their core-competencies in a going-forward space (of course, goes without saying). Jeez (in the non-wikipeda sense), doesn't GM have an IT department? They need to put IT in charge. Nobody can levelset the tablesteaks like IT management. 10 out od 10 IT managers orchestrate their holistic growth (I saw this on an airport ad, must be true).
2009-02-26 10:28:08
Good article
But I take exception to your last comment...when you owe $10.7 trillion, you usually don't get to dictate the terms..

As Donald Trump understood well.."If you owe the bank $1 million and can't pay, you're in trouble, but if you owe the bank $1 billion and can't pay, the bank's in trouble."

Also, as John Bowden Connally, Jr. famously said about the dollar in addressing the rest of the world "Its our currency, but your problem."

Point is, I agree that the US must restructure, but as long as we are the world's reserve currency (and have the biggest guns to back it up), we will dictate the terms.
2009-02-26 12:30:33
So Goes the Nation
Jim, you identified the problem, but only spent one small paragraph stating it. We keep sending the wrong people to Washington to do our business. They are marketers, good at selling themselves, with no problem solving skills. Yet we keep sending them back. Even with the large turnover this past election, they are the same as always.
2009-02-26 14:09:49
So Goes the Nation
The larger the turnout the more idiots are voting. When politiciasn are sold like F150 trucks what do you expect?

Queue: Patriotic background music, slow motion flag:

(Spoken by a MOCHO REAL `mmerica voice): Joe Scumbag, the BEST selling congressman in `mmrrica. Largest graft capacity in his class. Gotdown to YOUR comgressman dealer and ask your lobbiest for a test drive, TODAY.

Queue: slow motion eagle.

Jeez, what patriotic peasant can resist ALL `mmmrrica advertising. I'd buy one. I'd by me a Senator if I could afford it.
2009-02-26 17:45:50
So Goes the Nation
So we all agree, the wrong people have been running Washington and some idiots elected them.
Now who shall we replace them with? Bankers? CEO's? Collage professors? Short term traders?
I hope we'll know them when we see them.
2009-02-26 20:12:18
Most accurate analysis
I just retired from GM, given an offer I couldn't refuse -

Watching GM slowly and inevitably wreck itself was a most sad experience. Denial and delusion was the rule. I learned so much about human nature, groupthink, the behavior of crowds, of foolishness, about massively swollen heads filled with vacuum.

Yeah, the USA has the same disease. Foolish headstrong self centered arrogance. Refusal to face reality. Pride.
2009-03-06 10:45:03
structural problems not mentioned
Two additional major structural problems that have impacted GM and all American industry. First, a highly disfunctional public school monopoly run for the benefit of teachers unions and their captive politicians. Second, a highly toxic legal environment run for the benefit of the Trial Lawyers. As an experienced attorney, I will never be bullish on any American manufacturing business until these problems are strongly addressed.
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