Random Thoughts: Magic Mountain
This economy is like one big roller coaster ride.
Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also The Age of Austerity and The Citi Pity Party.
Swingers! - 11:41 am
- I could swear I saw a coupla flappers last night.
- Color me gonzo in Weatherford (WFT) into this 20% next day pop. Hit it to quit it and make it to take it, or at least that's my modus operandi in this environment.
- My gut on this nasty Wells (WFC)-Wachovia (WB)-Citi (C) love triangle? While I think Wells Fargo should win control of Wachovia (it's a much better fit and they should be rewarded for running a strong franchise during a crisis), my unfortunate sense is that Citi will get it.
- Conventional wisdom is that we'll see a sharp rally if the bailout is passed and sell off hard if it's denied. Remember, Minyans, the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
- Bloomberg reports that the average hedge fund return for the month of September was -8.6%. Keep that in the back of your crowded keppe as we listen for Bob Marley.
- I'll tell ya, Sisyphus had nothing on my inbox.
- The NYU speech is being uploaded as we speak, for all ye faithful who inquired. Funny thing about being A.D.D., bits and pieces are coming back to me after the fact and there is "stuff" in there I've never shared before.
- In what will likely be an unsuccessful attempt to shake Dre, Ice Cube, Eazy-E and MC Ren from my head, I'm going with some Cowboy Mouth for a smile.
- As always, I hope this finds you well.
Magic Mountain? - 12:39 pm
Remember the last time you were on a roller coaster? They slap the safety harness on and there's a moment when you jerk forward and begin the slow, clicky climb towards the twists and turns. The emotion is a mix of excitement and fear, sorta like we're experiencing right now.
The difference, at least for me, is that regardless of how scared you are on the roller coaster, you know deep down that you'll be alright. While I truly believe in my heart of hearts that we will get through this and the golden age of globalization will emerge--one where opportunities abound--I'm equally aware that not everyone will get there.
It's sorta like Saving Private Ryan when Tom Hanks looked around the boat on the way to the beach, unsure of which friends and faces would survive. I don't like mixing metaphors but work with me, please, as it's Friday.
The point--yes, I have one--is that if you're reading this, you've already demonstrated a thirst for knowledge and a desire to improve you're financial literacy. Lucidity will be a hallmark of our success and we'll need to keep our emotions in check, maintaining clarity amidst the confusion. It won't be easy but that is our mission in the rain.
The process of price discovery will persist for some time and it's about to take a giant step forward. Hang on, Minyans, and remember that when the dust settles, we'll be in a profound position to prosper. Risk management over reward chasing as we find our way.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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