Bank of America Plays Hardball; Citigroup Plays Dumb
Greetings from New York; if taking trading losses was either easy or felt good everyone would do it. As it is, very few people do - which is why, as a born contrarian as well as a natural pain in the arse, I'm more than happy to belabor to the importance of having a sell-discipline in your trading tool chest.
And, since the best lessons involve the educator suffering extreme pain (so you don't have to), let's focus on this week's forays into the Ag plays.
In brief, I got long Mosaic (MOS), as I liked the price action in response to terrible guidance. My price target was $40; my stop-loss was $35. I harvested most of the gains at $40 and dumped the rest on Friday's pullback. Made enough to take Mrs. Jeffmacke to the movies. With Valkyrie and all its campy genius not playing nearby, I delayed the movie and kept trading Ags, this time rolling into Potash (POT). The goal was $90, the stop was $80.
Here's the thing about stops and why you need to stick to them: The Mosaic trade was decent, the Potash trade was lousy. That said, sticking to my disciplines on each trade limited my losses and kept the bottom line of my Ag trades as a whole slightly in the black, if only very slightly. 
Putting it in terms that applies to every married man's life: I can get out of Valkyrie by reiterating to Mrs. Jeffmacke that the movie is a story about a 65-year-old failed plot to kill Hitler and stars Tom Cruise wearing an eye patch.
Had I chosen to fight the tape on Potash, I'd be spending the day explaining that Daddy just needs a little quiet time today. Worst case scenario, had I chucked the idea of stops entirely and decided to "dollar cost average" into today's 10-buck drop, I'd be praying for a late day rally so I could avoid explaining to Anne that dog food has all the nutrients a growing child needs.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
I'm leaning towards technicals and the emotion of the tape over fundamentals for one really good reasons: the fundamentals are horrible and apt to get worse.
I'm avoiding banks entirely (where the rules mean nothing) and simply trolling for quick trades in other sectors.
I agree we can't trust the market in a material way until the Powers that Be stop changing the rules constantly. But we don't have a stock market where that's not happening so I'm just sticking with the companies easiest to get your arms around at least party way.
There is no hope, there is no strategy, there isn't even an abilty to remember the BS promised just weeks ago ( Pandit at Town Hall meeting, Smith barney is not for sale)
The Board has faith in the management team like the crew of the Titanic did in their captain.
And speaking of the Board, now Mr. Parsons is going to save Citi? Isn't he the guy who screwed -up Time Warner, well that's a perfect resume item for a Citi candidate.( I guess he'll advise president Obama to shovel more TARP Citi's way)
With three trillion in level III assets and lord only knows how much off the books, it's grim.
It's time to sell vthe pieces and if a viable structure remains, that's great, but that is not the objective of the exercise.
The credit card portfolio and the retail francises should generate, even in this economic climate, attractive gains.
END THE PAIN, ENOUGH ALREADY, PUT DOWN THE HORSE, IT'S LAME !!!!!!
Can't see using TA in this market, either. TA requires a series of related points. Every time they change the rules the points are now unrelated. The worst is when the rules are changed and they don't announce it.
HUGE Nature Boy fans!
