GM: One Step Closer to Nationalization

By Andrew Jeffery Apr 14, 2009 12:30 pm
Embattled automaker serves as a guinea pig for state owership.
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The great modern American nationalization experiment is underway: General Motors (GM), once the largest automaker in the world, has become a sort of Frankenstein's monster for the US government.

Bloomberg reports the Obama Administration is stepping up pressure on management, unions and creditors to make further concessions, and is considering taking a sizable equity position in the once-proud Detroit firm. The move, which would swap out some of the outstanding $13.4 billion in government loans for stock in a new, slimmed-down, cleaned-up version of GM, is the latest in a series of steps toward outright nationalization.

Analysts say the swap would diminish the rights of creditors, to whom the company offered around 90% ownership in a recent restructuring plan - a plan rejected by government officials. Under the Obama Administration's preferred tact of temporary state ownership, employees owed pension benefits would end up faring better than bondholders.

The government aims to take an ownership interest in GM, then quickly use the cover of bankruptcy courts to hack off the 'bad' parts of the firm. With a fresh start, free of legacy obligations and under performing divisions, Washington says it would quickly divest of it's stake and let the restructuring process continue. 

We've by now become almost numb to government-led bailouts of failed companies, most notably American International Group (AIG), Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). The details are almost an afterthought, as the complexity of each scenario renders casual analysis almost a waste of time. The GM situation, however, could be a blueprint for future intrusion of the federal government into private enterprise.

Secured lenders, as is the government in the case of GM, often prefer a bankruptcy filing when companies get into trouble since it can enable the quickest repayment of their loans in full. Unsecured creditors and equity owners are left holding the bag.

The Bush Administration before him and now Obama have set a precedent: Emergency, secured loans are a likely precursor to state ownership. Notably, the huge bailouts of Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) were executed through portfolio guarantees and capital injections, not secured loans to the company itself. Not yet, anyway.

Despite efforts on the part of officials to play down the government's role in running GM, or AIG, or Citigroup, or Bank of America, we have entered an economic reality where business success, rather than relying on vision, strategy and good practices, is becoming increasingly reliant on political acumen.

By adding layers of red tape and palm-greasing to our already politicized economy, we move closer and closer to an economic system directed not by the collective will of the many, but rather one controlled by an ever-shrinking group of power brokers and political puppeteers.

This, despite loud proclamations of an impending return to economic vibrancy, is not a welcome development.
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(12)
2009-04-14 12:47:07
GM: One Step Closer to Nationalization
My name is Steve and I am a recovering moderate Republican. What are the root causes of what got us here? Poor ethics? Lack of Government oversight? Abandomment of fiscal constraint? I am not sure but I have become convinced in recent years that the Invisible Hand has been absent, if not kept in the pocket!
I wonder how many out there are like myself in that the degree of government involvement is not an issue or maybe welcome.
2009-04-14 12:52:05
GM - nationalization
Any private lender to GM of the magnitude that the government provided would have demanded and got control of the board of directors, and thereby would have effected a change in management.

GM's decades old business model has been failing for quite awhile. Unlike FORD which changed it's business model a few years ago, GM has continued to engage in predetermining the number of vehicles it manufactures, disregarding the actual DEMAND for its product. This required costly year-end price cutting to clear inventory. And imposed a significant burden on used-car prices...whose importance has grown by leaps and bounds because of the great increase in Leasing versus purchasing.

GM's business model has clearly proven to be a disaster in a period of deep economic downturn. Their healthcare and retirement funding obligations has contributed to drying up their internal cash generation.

So far the misguided Geither led Treasury Department has not moved towards nationalization, and indeed I seriously doubt that they'd be stupid enough to want to take that responsibility upon themselves.

2009-04-14 13:00:47
GM: One Step Closer to Nationalization
Count me not on board with ya there Steve. Here is the problem..... The Government is like the referee in a sporting event. They set the rules, make the calls, and can make or break things on a whim. When the government becomes a player in the game, there is a HUGE conflict of interest, where policy decisions are made for its benefit. Let's look at the case at hand...GM. We all know that American consumers (forget about the global ones for now) prefer large cars and trucks/SUV's. That is what GM and other domestics have built. Now, if the feds own GM....and they try to push GM to build cars THEY think are correct, who do you think will buy them? Nobody. To protect itself......what do you think they will do? Yup...change the rules. Outlaw SUV's, raise gas taxes, tax credits for consumers, etc....whatever it takes to MAKE the consumer buy their products. Not sure how old you are, but this government managed economy thing was tried before......just see how successful the USSR is. Not :) It is a slippery slope we are on.....sigh.....
2009-04-14 13:15:32
GM: One Step Closer to Nationalization
"My name is Steve and I am a recovering moderate Republican. What are the root causes of what got us here? "

moderate Republicans.
2009-04-14 13:44:25
gm debt
The government can't be secured without all the other unsecured debt becoming secured, per the original loan agreements.
2009-04-14 13:51:34
GM: One Step Closer to Nationalization
I am on board with Steve. What is this fear of nationalization all about? "goverment managed economy thing has been tried before"? Yes, but in a completely different context. In USSR (and I have been there, have you?) the government was the company. PERMANENTLY SO. Here, nobody is thinking of the feds taking over permanently (I agree that would be stupid). The feds will (should) take over just long enough to root out the built in inefficiencies and turn the company back over into the private sector. And, please, don't even begin on "government is always inefficient". Compared to GM US Postal service is a model efficiency. The company has a messed up business model, inefficienies that come from years of making bad business decisions, venturing outside of its core business into areas that it had no expertise. Can it get any worse when/if government takes over? Yes, but I doubt it can get any worse than it is and was at GM for many years. But will it get better if the feds keep pouring moneys down the GM 'pit', while the company makes no improvements? I think this is even less likely. Will the Feds require GM to build cars that FEDS wants them to build? Perhaps, but it seems GM is building cars noone wants to buy anyway. So, I ask again, so can it get any worse if the feds take over? Is there that big of a difference between feds and a large mismanaged corporation? At least we can kick the goverment out every 4 years. How often has management changed at GM? Shareholders have less rights then citizens and management can get away with FAR more than an elected official. I say stop this 'nationalization' paranoya. The goverment has to intervene when it is necessery, directly or via taxers or regulations. You don't like regulations? Then look at AIG. This is what happens when there is no oversight. A one trillion dollar 'bad bet'.

P.S. I am a hard core republican. I am just more pragmatic than an average republican.
2009-04-14 14:05:41
GM: One Step Closer to Nationalization
Yes, I have been to the USSR, back when we had a partnership with them to tie up the fissile material. Also been to the Ukraine and many Asian and European non-tourist locations.

Anyhow, I think we will have to agree to disagree about nationalization. I think it is a huge mistake and a distortion of the markets....you apparently don't. To each their own :)

As for GM management.....and this is probably true in MANY areas of not only our economic, but social interactions as well, a lot of the blame lies with the people that are supposed to hold their feet to the fire...the stockholders. When people don't care, or outsource their due diligence....management will run amok. WHY was GM management allowed to go into areas they had no business in? The Board. Now, when time have caught up with them.....why did the government run in to save them? They should have faced the consequences of their inaction....as should every publicly held company. If sotckholders cannot and have not held management accountable, they should lose it all in bankruptcy. Period.

I'm rambling....so I'll stop now. But I think we can all agree that government allocating resources in the private sector is a HUGE mistake? <duck>


:)
2009-04-14 14:18:18
GM: One Step Closer to Nationalization
Frank, I have to agree with you somewhat. I guess I was so dissappointed with the Republican perspective that I have caught the pragmatism of GS.... ;) the issue to come to terms with in my feeble mind, is what is a free market and what is fiscal constraint.

I don't agree with nationalization in principle, but certainly if it was my money (and we all agree it is OUR money) Management cannot do the same thing and expect different results - especially wiht OUR money.
2009-04-14 14:39:34
GM: One Step Closer to Nationalization
It's ok Steve. I was a Republican at one point in my life too. That was until the Republicans discovered that it was easier get elected by scaring the ignorant peasants with stories about "fornicatin' harlots" and (the ever popular) "those people".

Perhaps, one day, there will be a political party in `mmmrica that isn't run by scam artists manipulating dumb-azzes, but I doubt it. People in a "democratic" society generally get what they deserve.

2009-04-14 14:49:09
It's a question of degree
The government was already dictating product choices through various means. The real issue here is to protect the unions. That is the near term goal.

Green product design et al will come later.

The worldwide over capacity in auto manufacturing has been obvious since the 1980s - I remember going through the analysis in B-school back then.

2009-04-16 23:14:37
GM
With the bail out, and "the Administration" overseeing GM now, we have a new auto manufacturer in the US. It is Government Motors. Another step towars Socialism.
2009-11-23 21:28:29
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