Making Money Off Of Citigroup's Deal
By Quint Tatro Nov 28, 2007 9:01 am
The U.S.' move towards the alternative energy theme may just be shifting into high gear.
As I continue to mull over yesterday's news regarding the Abu Dhabi investment within Citigroup (C) many thoughts continue to roll around in my head. First and foremost is the fact that I believe we have found the long awaited bidder that stock traders have been looking for within the financial sector and more than likely a few other places as well.
I have absolutely no idea if this puts in a bottom for the market, and my initial thought is no, but I do believe it shows market participants that there is support out there in the form of the international community. I also believe that this is just the first of many deals we will see where a foreign institution steps in and buys a US asset on the cheap. I firmly believe this is a no-brainer for outside countries that seek to improve upon their own well-being by investing in the areas that they will need in order to truly grow to the next level.
These countries are currently getting a double whammy as they have the ability to pick through significantly discounted stock prices while at the same time using their own domestic currency that has actually increased in value substantially. Unlike impatient stock jocks, these investors have ample time to ride out the interim bumps and wiggles, understanding that we have over 100 years of history telling us these stocks will eventually bounce back and perform quite well.
I am in the camp that believes if an international institution wants to make a longer-term investment, which not only can increase in value substantially but also open the doors to one of the areas the U.S. does much better than the rest of the world, its banks and financial institutions are on the auction block. If other countries hadn't been thinking about it already, you can surely bet they are thinking about it now.
While I truly feel as though a window into the future has been opened for all to see, my job as a stock operator is to contemplate how to make money with this knowledge. I think it is a little too obvious that buying up some financial stocks may be a good longer term play, but I have done just that recently and feel comfortable about a few shares of each of the major banks being hidden away in the lock box for safe keeping. While that seems like a smart thing to do, I have been contemplating what else makes sense and came up with an interesting idea.
As my day went on yesterday and I continued to speak with friends and family regarding the Citigroup news, I was fascinated by the common theme uttered by just about everyone. While I didn't actually give much thought to the geographic location of the purchaser as it just as easily could have been China, each person I spoke with could not get past the fact that the money used for this purchase was actually the money the U.S. spent on foreign oil. While this is very true, one can make an argument that simply consuming anything in the U.S. that has been imported improves the financial well being of another country, but these people did not see it that way and were stuck on the oil.
If there is one thing I have learned as my time during an investor it is that when the pendulum swings, it swings wildly and often overshoots its mark by a wide margin. Any shift can take days, weeks, months or years but as it play out it often becomes adopted and embraced by all: Think Y2K.
So, if one of the first major international investments was not China but rather the Middle East, which has now sparked the debate once again surrounding the U.S.' foreign dependence on oil, not to mention the fact that we're embarking on a U.S. election year, it is starting to make sense to me that the U.S.' move towards the alternative energy theme may just be shifting into high gear.
Do I believe a move towards a rapid and substantial adoption of reusable energy will stop foreign investment into the U.S.' depressed financial markets? Absolutely not, but as a country, I now strongly believe that the masses will demand the U.S. cease this foreign life-line and adopt its own domestic sources of energy.
This brings me back to and makes me incredibly optimistic about the alternative energy plays within the market today. Despite many of these stocks already seeing a massive price increase, I am starting to firmly believe that these stocks may just be getting started. It is an area that intrigues many but no one has any real idea of just how it will all play out and who will remain standing in the end. A fundamental understanding of these companies will help, but allowing the technicals to be our guide will be a must.
My first area of interest is within the solar sector where the two clear standouts at this point are First Solar (FSLR) and Sun Power (SPWR). Both have proven they are 'real' as they have secured incredible contracts worth billions, which is clearly reflected in their stock prices, which have been on strong runs for the past few years. Despite the lofty stock price, an argument can be made that these stocks still represent a decent value and may have many years of life left, especially if the pendulum shifts in the direction I believe it will. Interesting companies include Memc Electronic (WFR), Ascent Solar (ASTI), Daystar Technologies (DSTI) and Evergreen Solar (ESLR).
There are also other areas outside of solar that are quite interesting such as wind, hydro or even alternative but similar natural resources such as coal or natural gas.
While many will mull over yesterday's Citigroup news and ponder the fate of the U.S. as a whole, I strongly believe this has given us a glimpse into the future and a transition that no longer might take place but will take place and sooner than most expect. Rather than sit idle, I am moving into action and am going to learn as much as I possibly can about all the opportunities available and their profit potential. I look forward to this journey and hope you will join me.
Positions in ESLR, WFR and C.
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