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Random Thoughts

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We had some slippage out of the gate, snappage that's seemed to abate and now, consistent with the path of maximum frustration, we're hugging the flat line...

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  • Sigh...gotta love being so busy on the opening that you place an order to sell some S&P puts, get distracted as A.D.D. people do, and get lifted on a stray 51 lot.

  • My M.O., so you know, was to sell a slew, count to 50 backwards by primes and then add out months into 'this' lift. That, in Wall Street parlance, is known as a "leg." Ruprecht, get some corks for my forks, pronto!

  • Tell check? Breadth is skewed positively, the homies snapped hard (but are still below resistance), the banks are tetherballin' at 112 (still off fitty bips) and the nets, semis and pharma seemingly trade dry.

  • If you're not reading Television's JeffMacke's Retail Round-Up, you're missing some of the snazziest content in the 'Ville!

  • So, the NASD is out warning that margin debt is at dangerous levels. The $321.2 billion (February) is above the previous record of $299.9 billion in March 2000. For all those who don't remember, March 2000 was a pretty prickly precipice for equities.

  • Move over Weezie! MVHQ is moving on up--or, down, as the case may be. Same building, different floor and a much bigger space to facilitate our growing family. That's slated for June 1, which is gorgeous considering the bevy of other Minyan initiatives in the pipeline.

  • Alrightee then, as Pep skips towards his ol' Kentucky home, the rest of us are left to tickle the flickering ticks on both sides of the ride. We had some slippage out of the gate, snappage that's seemed to abate and now, consistent with the path of maximum frustration, we're hugging the flat line (visualize that).

  • Don't worry, it's a quick read!

  • That drip drip you hear isn't the nosty Gotham weather--although it is fugly out there--it's the sound of front month premium dripping from our collective sheets. As discussed earlier, I attempted to punt some April puts (to buy back out-months in the days ahead) but got off a Todd-lot. So here I sit, watching the action with my very best Chloe face.

  • Textbook technical analysis dictates that the best time to sell (buy) is on the retest of the breakdown (breakout). So, in that regard, HGX 218 (and BKX 113.50, if and when) should be telling. It is worth noting that, during that lift attempt, the bids in the banks were absorbed by supply. May be telling, so keep an eye on 'em.

  • I punted my Aunt Fannie puts as 1) I'm paring a bit of risk, (I'm still net short with stops above), 2) I've got this weird sense that it's gonna pin $55 and 3) opportunities are made up easier than losses.

  • As far as my tape feel, I'm still leaning short (long situations, short the market) with an eye on the oft-mentioned levels above. My focus over the next few sessions is to roll my front month paper out so I can enjoy the 'Ritas with the Maven this weekend in Rubyville instead of stressing about the risk profile that will await my return.

  • Do Jewish Marines say "Semper Oy"?


R.P.

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