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Random Thoughts


Will you remember to ask WHY the FOMC would need to lower rates, if and when?

  • Why has my short-side vehicle of late been the S&P rather than the BKX, if that's where the smoke is? Field position. With the BKX off 5% since the end of June, the S's are perched near the highs. And if we subscribe to "as goes the piggies , so goes the poke," the poke should follow the smoke.

  • Smokin' Aces! Check out O-Dog and the Homies, which just suffered from a drive-by as the HGX hangs a deuce. See the five year trendline, which is more bloods than crips.

  • Fox News reported earlier that British Fighter Jets were scrambled as Russian Bombers approached their air space. Not normally our wheelhouse in terms of content but my coverage told me that they saw IWM and SPY put buyers on this news. So ya know...

  • Hello Newman! S&P 1540 is back in play and that level isn't lost on either side of the critter ride. We held it Wednesday and it snapped hard--with similar breadth, to boot--but I'm unsure if recent history will serve to embolden the bulls or entrap them. Stay tuned---and stay tight!
  • Luxury addicts? That sorta sums up our society as well, no?

  • I'm holding onto my S&P put position that I re-initiatged, with stops above 1540 (sound familar?). I don't know about all this "Black Monday" talk but it's academic from a mechanics standpoint. Discipline over conviction goes a long way in tapes like this, especially if this tape goes a long way.
  • Some odd-lotter whacked 1,400,000 XLF (financial spiders) on the bid this morning.

  • Speaking of the shakin' bacon, watch BKX 111.70-112 support, which is coming up quick.

  • I'll also draw your attention to Blackstone (BX), which is off another 5%. This gorilla may be a decent proxy for deal psychology.

  • Energy, which has been a hiding spot, is also on the radar now. Our friends at Deutsche Bank note that the headlines that OPEC may increase production by 500kb/d in September are from the former head of Petroleos de Venezuela (the first time they've seen anyone in that arena make an estimate. That's triggered a downside reversal in crude and could conceivably put pressure on the energy complex.

  • Remember on Wednesday, we noted that the rotation into energy and metals was a relative positive because in a true malaise, there's no place to hide. I'm not sure how big this news is but if it hits that space, it would be another shift in the DNA of this move relative to the many false alarms we've seen. No chicken little here--just some chicken salad--just wanna make sure you see what I see.

  • "InterContinental Exchange (ICE) is heating up before the weekend out of a very bullish looking cup and handle. See the daily here." Professor Jeff Cooper on today's Buzz

  • Can't you just see it? "Hey Morris, check out that freaky feline over there-she looks like an iguana!"

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know…

    • If China is booming and US Farmers are planting so much corn, how does Caterpillar (CAT) miss so badly?

    • What's worse: Higher yields that twist the ARM's of the consumer or the reasons behind the flight to quality that are pushing yields lower?

    • Will you remember to ask WHY the FOMC would need to lower rates, if and when?

    • Y'all see American Home Mortgage (AMH) 12% higher today?

    • Hey S&P 1540, are you looking at me? ('Cause I'm lookin' at YOU!)

    • How bout S&P 1534, which was Wednesday's intra-day low?

    • Can I lose any more respect for Michael Vick?

    • Y'all see market breadth getting worse?

    • Why do I get the distinct sense that Snapper is gonna stay in his shell today?

    • Is anyone else hearing i-Phone horror stories?

    • Wouldn't Sir Isaac Newton be shorting the schvitz out of Apple?

    • What kind of name is Poole?

    • Why is it that the Minx always has a 'tude when I've got a packed afternoon docket?

    • Doesn't triple resistance in the BKX seem obvious with the benefit of hindsight?

    • Only another 1200 DJIA points until the circuit breakers kick in?

  • Happy Friday Minyans, you've earned it!
Position in S&P

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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