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Random Thoughts


There is a difference between being optimistic and being bullish .

  • Turnaround Tuesday snuck out of the gate with some green sprinkled across our screens. We offered earlier that while today may be Hoofy's best shot at a counter-trend rally, he woulda preferred to see a lower opening.

  • Instead, he had to wait for the inevitable probe (S&P 1490), which is par for the course after a string of fugly sessions.

  • Will he succeed with his Turnaround Tuesday tussle? The tea leaves are non-descript, with breadth flat, the banks hanging tough (BKX 114 is the latest, greatest resistance), Blackstone desperately trying to hold $31, commodities laggy (which is negative in a correlated world) and the homies rolling into reality. They want to rally--the jury is still out as to whether they can.

  • Nobody on the street--from hedge funds to brokers to pension funds--want these CDO baskets priced to market. Especially into quarter-end.

  • I will tell you this, however, and I know it first hand. The Bear Stearns fiasco put a spotlight on the mark-to-market process and alotta investors have calls into their investment managers asking for clarity. If and when (likely the latter) this triggers redemptions, this discussion will be a moot point. They'll be marked, alright...wherever they're sold.

  • Don't be so moody, booty!

  • I gotta think "they" defend Blackstone $31 the first few times around. If, by chance, they can't hold the line, it'll speak volumes and do so loudly.

  • Take a good, hard look at Hoofy & Boo's News and Views. Our humble lil' critters are about to get very famous and I want ye faithful to be able to say that they knew them 'way back when…'

  • In response to mounting questions on the timing and locale of Minyans in the Mountains, please know that we've decided to push it out to early next year. There are simply too many large scale MV initiatives rolling out in the next few months and we wanna do it right, rather than fast.

  • Remember how much resistance there was when we used to talk about the housing bubble? It was sorta the same when we talked about the tech bubble in 2000. Expect similar resistance to the notion of a debt bubble, as well as the same sorta result.

  • The scariest aspect is that a slice of society owned tech stocks and a somewhat bigger crew bought into the housing boom. Everyone is in debt and we live in a finance-based economy. The implications are spooky (although the timing is admittedly uncertain).

  • Trust me when I tell you that I would love nothing better than a booming bull market. We'll take the critters public, give oodles of money to charity and roll with models and bottles (or bottles and babies as the case may be).

  • Hope isn't a viable investment strategy so while I'll position myself to do just that, I'll protect my ass(ets) accordingly. That's the whole magilla when discussing risk management vs. reward chasing. You never want to be one trade away from a total meltdown.

  • My "brother," the best pure trader and tape reader I know, thinks the S&P futes tag 1535 this week. He doesn't watch credit spreads or overthink the big picture, he just trades the tape (and does so with discipline). As I respect his vibes, I wanted to pass along the perspective.

  • "Regarding the Brothers Toll, I have talked about these guys often. They have been sellers of Toll Brothers (TOL) on the way up, and yes, on the way down. In fact, Bruce Toll, one of the founding brothers Toll just sold his largest chunk on record according to my Bloomberg. 1,160,000 shares. These guys usually sell 300,000 shares at a whack so this amount and the timing is of note." Professor Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • Giant steps are what you take, walking on the moon. I hope my legs dont break, walking on the moon.

  • Crude is down and stocks are... lower? Yeah, it's prolly the same reason gold is heavy too. The asset class dance is highly correlated around the world. Remember, they all rallied in synch on the heels of historic fiscal and monetary stimuli.

  • We touched on this dynamic last year (when everyone was looking at falling oil as an upside catalyst) and it remains in play today. The only missing piece of the puzzle, I suppose, is the stronger dollar. Stay tuned.

  • There is a difference between being optimistic and being bullish. Indeed, I'm all for looking at the glass as half full, I just wanna make sure it doesn't spring a leak.

  • While there are cracks in the foundation (cheap money, deal-driven psychology), the mood on the Street continues to be relatively benign. Hey, with the DJIA three scant percent from an all-time high, are you really that surprised?

  • "Target (TGT) expects June sales to come in at the lower end of their previously announced 3-5% range. Not a great one-off sign for the consumer, obviously. I remain somewhat cautious on the retailers over the summer but I wouldn't make too much of a "Lower-end of range" guide." Television's JeffMacke on today's Buzz.

  • Snoop Tony Dwyer is still uber-bullish on equities, with a 12-18 month price target of S&P 1800. So ya know.

  • So many thoughts, so little time. Lemme hop back to the Buzz and wish ye faithful a fruitful close!


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