Doin' It Bloggystyle: Rough Day for Da Bears
Minyanville brings together the best of what they are saying "out there" about the topics we're talking about right here.
Blogs themselves need no introduction, as they get as much publicity as pretty much anything these days, save maybe the latest Britney news. There's an expanding world of excellent financial blogs, covering just about everything, from global economics to swing trading. Minyanville's goal is to bring together the best of what they are saying "out there" about the topics we're talking about right here.
- Barry with the Bernanke Blink.
- And some great links including Kirk.
- "Obviously, arguments like "what does the Fed know that we don't know" will fester as the market makes another climb to new all-time highs (at this pace we'll see them before the end of the month)." David Gaffen at the WSJ Market Beat.
- Calculated Risk: "An increase in long rates would be normal if the market expectations for the economy improve. What would be concerning is if long rates increased by more than normal because of the unwinding of investments by foreign CBs."
- And Bonddad.
- Not going to right the ship, says Mish "...the medicine is wrong. It was panic moves by Greenspan (with Bernanke voting with Greenspan every time), that created the credit bubble. Panic moves to lower interest rates can hardly be the cure."
- Nourel Roubini favors the 50 bp cut but says it's too little too late.
- Vitaliiy against a homeowner bailout.
- Bespoke with historic S&P responses to rate cut cycles.
- CXO Advisory on the disconnect between Fed Funds and long rates. Hat Tip Abnormal Returns.
- Chris Perruna with some nice IPO plays.
- Dr. Brett has a graphic chart of non-existent commodity inflation since 2000. Only up 233.97% in energy.
- Rate Cut Projections from the Cleveland Fed, via VIX and More.
- It's just one indicator, but some thought on the VIX melt from Bill Rempel.
- And yours truly.
Da Real Implosions
- So if you're like Mark Haines and ...um... me and you root for the Mets and Red Sox in baseball in the Giants in football, tough times lately.
- Mets are on the cusp of blowing a 7 game lead with 17 to play, a feat that has never been accomplished before according to the Daily News.
- But hey, Baseball Prospectus Odds-Ma-Tron simulates the remaining games 1 million times, and the Mets still have a 75% chance to win the East, and 86% to make the playoffs. And that's the pessimistic model. This other one gives them 80% and 90% chances respectively.
- The betting market on Tradesports gives pretty identical odds.
- How about the World Series? Red Sox and Yankees basically remain co-faves at 18-19% each, with the Yankees bid-ask a smidge higher.
- I liked and still like the Angels at 11.5% as a value play. But why not the Indians at 10.5%? Yankees and Red Sox get a million times the hype, but in a short series, are they really that big a favorite over 2 other teams with basically the same exact record? One of those two is guaranteed to at least have home field in the 1st round to boot.
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