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Two Ways: Recession Over?


Strengthen your portfolio in good times and bad.

For the first time in months, traders began to speculate that the recession is over and that the Fed might actually begin to increase the overnight Fed Funds target rate.

Data provided by Bloomberg showed Fed Funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade pricing in a 70 percent probability that Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee could vote to raise the overnight borrowing target 50 basis points by November. A strong statement considering the odds were at 27% yesterday.

The sentiment comes as the Labor Department reported a better than expected jobs number today. Nonfarm payrolls fell in May by 345,000 while the unemployment rate rose to 9.4%, the highest since 1983. Consensus forecasts called for a 9.2% unemployment rate, but also for a loss of 525,000 jobs.

See Professor Vinny Catalano's perspective in Reading Economic Reports for Bullish Signs.

From the Bull Pen: Minyans know that it is way too early to be calling a bottom. Nonetheless, is the pullback in gold your opportunity to get long? Consider the goldminers ETF (GDX); a sell stop can be set below $40.

From the Bear Cave: Dead cat bounce in the dollar? Professor Krueger highlighted the Australian Dollar ETF (FXA) today on the Buzz. On the technical picture, using the fat crayola method, it's sitting at $79 support. One can set a 2 point sell stop below on upside tries.

Whacky day! But at least it's Friday. Have a great weekend, Minyans!
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Position in GDX

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