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Random Thoughts

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The question on everyone's lips is whether this is "it" or simply another shake out before we leg higher. The answer is...there's no way to know.

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  • Doh!

  • Summer, summer, summertime! I scribed an opening vibe today that walks through why alotta large players are concerned into quarter-end. It has to do with a Bear and his name ain't Boo.

  • The Blackstone IPO, which prices tonight and begins trading tomorrow. As it stands, I'm hearing the deal is about six times oversubscribed.

  • Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right? Yeah, here we are stuck in the middle of the S&P range, which measures from 1490 to 1540. Too wide for my liking, which is why I'm eyeing other contextual backdrops (BKX).

  • My goodness, just when the bear thought he caught the bunny, the rabbit sprung from the trap. Yeah, Mikey likes it--or at least for the moment--and this whippage caught alotta folks looking left and running right.

  • Why the Snapper? Well, the S&P whooshed to the uptrend and the fitty-day and bounced precisely on that line.

  • Coincidence? Self-fulfilling? Intuitive? Not sure. Minxy? Fer sure.

  • While hindsight is 20/20--and the potential for downside draggage was certainly there-- the green Semis in a red tape spoke to the underlying bid and sector rotation. Now, as we settle down, Francis, the group is up a quick deuce (2%) and challenging 52-week highs.

  • I know water is a commodity but this is nuts.

  • N's over S's as folks migrate away from the smoke in the financials? Prolly at first but, remember, as goes the financials, so goes the tape.

  • Kevin and Charlie walked into my office this morning and peered over my shoulder. "What's going on?" they asked, like two bemused children. "See this section?" I responded, pointing to the upper left corner of my third screen dedicated to the financials, "If this stays red, it'll spread..." as I waved my hand across the rest of my turret.

  • The question on everyone's lips is whether this is "it" or simply another shake out before we leg higher. The answer is...there's no way to know. The conditional elements for downside dislocation are surely in place but they've been in place. As I wrote this morning, there are two sides to this situation. See 'em both and respect, don't defer, both ways.

  • As the financials are THE catalyst, I'm watching them (and the breadth) all day and very closely for any signs of slippage or traction. The banks are broken, below the BKX 116 and the 200-day, and the next two steps, if you will, will be BKX 114 and 111.60. Indeed, if the big picture is comprised of alotta little pictures, this chart provides the perfect Kodak moment.

  • I'm supposed to be travelin' tomorrow (it figures) but will try to find a turret to monitor the action. If we don't speak, lemme take this moment to wish ye a peaceful, easy weekend. As my friend John Succo always tells me, experience is our greatest gift. Here's hoping that your experiences bring a smile to your puss.


R.P.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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