Doin' It Bloggystyle: Ben "Comfort" Bernanke
Minyanville brings together the best of what they are saying "out there" about the topics we're talking about right here.
Blogs themselves need no introduction, as they get as much publicity as pretty much anything these days, save maybe the latest Britney news. There's an expanding world of excellent financial blogs, covering just about everything, from global economics to swing trading. Minyanville's goal is to bring together the best of what they are saying "out there" about the topics we're talking about right here.
Statistically speaking, what now?
- Dr. Brett looks at some short term waterfalls, and what happens next.
- And some good news.
- "I went back to 1996 (N = 2891 trading days) and found only four occasions in which we had a prior overnight session down by 1% or more followed by a day session down by 1% or more and a current overnight session down by 1% or more. Interestingly, these short-term waterfall declines tended to occur at key junctures near intermediate lows in bear markets: 9/21/01 (after the 9/11 incident); 10/28/97; 4/17/2000; and 10/1/98. Three of the four occasions rose very sharply during the subsequent day session (over 3%) after dipping very little after the open. The one occasion that was down during the day session (by a little over 1%), recovered to a gain the following day. "
- Gotta be honest, I had not heard that term "stats arb" before the past few days, although I was familiar with the activities.
- What are they? Among other things, long versus short positions on maybe two stocks that have a consistent relationship. Until they don't. In a big way.
- Lots of carnage in the realm, via DealBreaker and Abnormal Returns.
- Tough times for Deal arbs as well.
- How about the borrowing from the Treasury to buy mortgage debt? And leveraging up 12:1 to do it? That trade slightly awry, via Dash of Insight.
Volatility: It's all Ball-Bearings these days.
- 19 of the last 50 days have seen 1% moves in the S&P, says Bespoke.
- Bill at VIX and More suggests turning a chart of the VIX upside down.
- Owning sky-high volatility can be your friend too, says yours truly.
Going Deep....and no, I don't mean Deep Calls, Lenny.
- Buy the close and sell the open? That would not have fared too well the past couple days, but over the past 14 years, that was generally the right idea, says CXO Advisory.
- Options Trading Beginner looks into the real purpose of trading.
- And if I'm here and you're here, isn't it our time?
- Hard to believe, but Fast Times at Ridgemont High is 25 years old on Monday, as per Crossing Wall Street.
- Which makes it one day younger than the bull market. Coincidence? I think not. I'm actually one day younger than Seven-Eleven, and don't think my parents didn't plan that out...
Fake Tales of San Francisco
- I honestly had no emotion greater than disinterest in Bonds' homer record, and I'm a huge baseball fan.
- OK, I was happy when I saw the guy who ended up with it was a Mets fan.
- And if you think anyone is going to know who gave up #756 in one, five and ten years, without Google, name who gave up McGwire's 62nd in 1998? How about his 70th? Or Bonds' 71st in 2001?
- What annoys me most was and is the pedantic take of the Elite Punditry. The insinuation always being They Know Better that we Luddite fools. In a generation we'll all be taking steroids. And besides, it's no more insidious than stealing signs or corking bats.
- Anyway, great rundown here on the Urban Myths surrounding Bonds.
- The myths?
- "Steroids were not prohibited by the MLB when Bonds allegedly used the drugs."
- "Steroids were not illegal when the big home run hitters allegedly used them to increase power in the late 90s and early 2000s."
- "Bonds never took steroids, never tested positive for steroids, etc."
- "Steroids won't help players hit home runs."
- The author (who also pens the Steroid Nation blog) makes a convincing case all of the above statements are false.
- Oh, and the answers to the above. Steve Trachsel, Carl Pavano, and I have no clue, I'd have to look up who gave up Bonds' homer.
- Yes, Carl Pavano was once traded straight up for Pedro, shagged Alyssa Milano, shagged George Steinbrenner out of $40 mln for about five wins, and gave up a historic homer.
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