Freaky Friday Potpourri: A $100 Billion Bank Deal?
The biggest bank deal in history puts the Mmmm back in M&A.
- Beeks arrived this morning and delivered an in-line orange crop report (with upward revisions for prior months). Anything outside of an outright disaster was gonna be initially well-received and all eyes turn to S&P 1555 (all-time highs) as the technical toggle.
- $100 billion dollar bank deal? The biggest bank deal in history puts the Mmmm back in M&A. This has been a long time in the works (pre-credit crunch) but there are two ways to look at this: the classic Mortimer "We're back baby!" or through the lens of an AOL-Time Warner (TWX) top tick.
- More incremental deal data points? After being below $3 billion for eight consecutive weeks, four deals totaling $11.7 billion were announced during this past week, which was the highest amount since the week ended Thursday, July 26.
- It's for the kids! We're thisclose to opening the gates for the Minyanville Holiday Festivus on December 7th in NYC. It'll feature our Circle of Trust (MV professors, investors and partners), fantastic music (Beatles and Dead and Stones, oh my!) and a number of surprises. If you or your firm is interested in sponsoring this event and being a reflection of the company we keep, please lemme know.
- Subprime mortgages written off during the first half of the year went delinquent at the fastest rate this decade.
- That, along with the shock treatment that housing is getting in the press, has all the hallmarks of the "news is always worst at the bottom." I don't know if this is the bottom but it could, perhaps, provide a (short-term) bottom. At least until HGX 185 arrives.
- So Merrill writes of $4,500,000,000 in bad calls? Why can't I write down 20 lbs of bad dinners? Or a few hundred thousand worth of bad trades? How 'bout three seasons of bad Raider football. I mean-come on, if we're all gonna play this game, we should all play with the same rules!
- Speaking of the brokers, do you see the first of three levels of technical resistance is upon us?
Cleveland? It wasn't a stellar showing for the Yanks last night as they kicked off their October run. Big game tonight for the Bombers-if they can swing home with a split, they'll take the series in five.
- Research in Motion (RIMM) reported inline estimated and upped guidance nicely vs. Street expectations. It remains to be seen how much of that good news is priced into the 136% rally in the stock this year.
- One of my better sales coverage guys-the same bloke who has been begging me to buy Baidu (BIDU) since it was $100-is pushing me on the merits of Taiwan. "As China becomes more powerful," he muses, "doesn't it seem logical that they would care less about Taiwan wanting sovereignty?"
- The Taiwan index, which topped at 12,500 in 1990, is trading around 9700 and their average P/E 9is 13.8 ('08 numbers) vs. 44x in China. The US, so you know, is trading at 15X '08 projections. EWT is the ETF, in case you were curious (I'm gonna take a hard look).
- Fare ye well, Minyans, and let's make the final fifth of this freaky week one that paves our pockets with singles and jingle!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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