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Random Thoughts: Financials are Shaking


Piggies tell the broad market tale.

  • The standout action as we slid off today's ski lift? I'll give you a hint, it rhymes with "shma-smantials."

  • As go the piggies, so goes the poke and I'll key off them until they stop working.

  • Of course, if watching grass grow helped me navigate the tape, I'll be on all fours with grass stains on my knees.

  • No, not like that. Come on now, this is a family franchise.

  • Oink Alert! Speaking of the piggies, keep close tabs on BKX 85. If this bacon gets shakin', the tape will start flakin'.

    Click to enlarge

  • See the Art Carnage in Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE). Every time I think of these names, the word "Nationalization" springs to mind. I know, I know… can't happen, right? I'm not so sure.

  • For what it's worth, I thought Johnny Bravo was more than just cool duds. He coulda been somebody.

  • Just ask Marsha.

  • I'm "feeling" Wachovia Bank (WB) $30 but, as a function of discipline, I've peeled off a snivlet of my puts to respect the process.

  • Keep half an eye on DXY 74.80, which is a mere 70 bips away. It would be a fresh multi-year low for the grungy greenback.

  • I'm still vibing a big move, Minyans, so keep your eyes peeled and your goggles clear.

  • There's something very peaceful about a blizzard in NYC. Of course, I can say that as I'm warmly nestled in my midtown nook wearing sweats and slippers. Hey Phoebe, toss another log on the faux fire!

  • Where Bear? Hey, it must be Friday! Bear Stearns (BSC) just found a bit and has injected a sense of vuja de to the snowy fray. Sorta like we've seen this movie before but it never really happened.

  • Is anyone else getting very excited for the March Madness and the NBA playoff run?

  • Churn, churn, under resistance. The quicker we trade down, the deeper the distance.

  • Chinese Chicken? Sticks and stones, baby, particularly with the series of lower highs in Shanghai.

  • What is it about Jerry Garcia on a snowy day? Oh, this!

  • One of the most expensive lessons in my career was the ability to synch my time horizon and risk profile. A long-term thesis shouldn't react to the daily dirt and short-term players need not concern themselves with macro themes. Take me at my word here--I lost a lot of money learning this and share it with hopes that you avoid that misstep altogether.

  • Remember, the credit-equity dichotomy infers a fierce move. Based on the technicals, odds are that it's lower. But that doesn't mean it has to be lower. See both sides please.
  • Alotta traders are stuck at home (hand raised with a smile) and that's leading to lower than average volume. Recipe for volatility? You betcha, Mister.
  • Applied Materials (AMAT trades dry. So do select cyclicals such as United Technologies (UTX), Honeywell (HON and Deere (DE).

  • Rock on, Minyans, as we groove towards our requisite two-day respite. Noice.


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