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Freaky Friday Potpourri: Will Today Be THE Fade Trade?

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The mechanics of the swing remain more important than the results of the at-bat.

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  • Petty? In the Hammies? Next weekend? Noice!

  • Note to all: Victory laps, if they must occur, should only be taken after the market is closed and the cast is dye.

  • I wonder if they serve cuddle fish two at a time?

  • Would we need to eat them with spoons?

  • Will today be THE fade trade? That's the zillion-dollar question, Minyans. I do believe we fade, if history and mystery is any guide, but the looming unknown is a function of timing.

  • I will say this: IF (and that's a huge if with NYSE internals 5:1 positive), it'll be a massive--and I mean massive---blow to investor psychology. It is for that reason alone that I'm unsure if they let 'em fail today.

  • Still, with loose grips on the handlebars, I layered into my first tranche of S&P puts on an opening with an eye towards S&P 1455 (200-day) and BKX 101.50. And, so you know, I took half that trade off when the S&P filled the gap and when flat for the session.

  • The risk--and my biggest fear when I faded that trade--is that those stop levels are too tight. We had a similar dilemma last week and wisely waited until S&P 1490 before unleashing the hounds. Still, discipline over conviction has kept me in the game and I plan to honor thy process.

  • Bear Stearns, after the stunning 13% run yesterday, is back in Red Dye despite chatter of a China rescue.

  • I will say this--I believe the most likely solution--not for Bear, but in general--is a transfer of wealth to China and others through the accumulation of stateside assets.

  • Hey, with the dollar off 33% since 2002, that's a heckuva sale!

  • When stocks are red in an otherwise green sea, it typically implies supply. Those names today included Juniper, Beazer, Amgen, IBM, CSX and GM.

  • Run, run, run for the mortgage. The quicker it opens, the sooner it closes.

  • Was the first fade the easy trade? Likely--and discipline dictated nodding to the trading Gods and taking some chips off the table. The mechanics of the swing remain more important than the results of the at-bat.

  • "A B-wave of a symmetrical measured move of 77 points from Thursday low equates to 1450, this AM's high. At this morning's high the indices were up 3%. In the first week of Oct 1987 the explosive one-day wonder rally that bulldozed everyone was 3%. Now, I'm not sayin'... but just so ya know." Professor Jeff Cooper on today's Buzz.

  • The correlation continues! Billionaire Eli Broad, who'll help shore up Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Global Equity Opportunities Fund, said art prices will decline as a result of losses by hedge funds and other large contemporary art collectors.

  • Wanna little more Coops De Ville? He rolled out his stock-picking service this week in the 'Ville and it's pretty snazzy. No, we're not selling you-he'll continue to scribe his vibe on Minyanville and real-time on the Buzz & Banter. But those who are looking for more-those who want him on that wall, who need him on that wall-have that option as well. As John Succo taught me, options are good. Click here for more information.

  • Raise your hand if you're tired! I am---I mean, man oh man, this has been a heckuva nutty few weeks, eh? Keep your eyes open and splash some water on your face, however, as the decisions you make in the next few hours will be the risk profile you awake with on Monday.

  • The average mind thinks 60,000 thoughts per day, of which 40,000 are recurring. If you factor in all the time you spend planning and thinking about what you have to do, how many conscious thoughts are left that appreciate the here and now?

  • Be mindful, Minyans, and have a heckuva weekend!


R.P.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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