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21 Bullish Predictions For Tech

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If more than half [of this list] hits, then the tech sector should produce returns well above positive expectations.

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If close to half of this list is fulfilled over the next 6-12 months, then the market outlook should prove quite correct. If more than half hits, then the tech sector should produce returns well above positive expectations:


1. The next year's M&A activity is led by the tech rich Nasdaq stocks, which have the best balance sheets, loads of cash, strong free cash flow and strong EPS growth.

2. Tech sector EPS growth will either lead or be one of the top three performing sectors over the next few quarters.

3. Furthermore, the tech sector will have positive EPS growth in a market where a greater number of firms will experience decelerating earnings growth.

4. Broadcom (BRCM) and other chips companies become performance leaders among a strong Nasdaq backdrop.

5. AT&T (T) finally embraces a more Fios-like service and materially increases spending on both the wireline and wireless network infrastructure over the next couple years.

6. One or more deals are announced in the networking space.

7. Retail sales for consumer related tech will remain fairly strong.

8. Apple's (AAPL) new Mac lineup and OS are hits and surpass expectations.

9. One or more of Google's (GOOG) next four quarters will be like Research in Motion's (RIMM) last quarter, helping to boost GOOG's share price past $625.

10. Even though brick and mortar retail sales remain mixed to muted, eBay (EBAY) and Amazon (AMZN) maintain online sales momentum, emphasizing the bifurcated economic conditions.

11. A large private equity deal gets announced in the tech sector.

12. Gas prices drop another 10-20% at the pump.

13. Microsoft (MSFT) gets its M&A groove on in a material way, leading to the stock posting multiple quarters of out-performance versus the S&P 500.

14. A GOP candidate starts showing some strength and draws into a question a certain Democrat victory for president.

15. The Halo 3 launch is very successful, reigniting sales of the new gaming consoles, gaming peripherals and materially increasing bandwidth usage over certain networks.

16. The prices of copper and the "other" commodities fall as much if not more than oil.

17. The price of oil goes back to $55 or lower.

18. The Fed cuts rates 75-125 bps over the next year.

19. Both Microsoft and Cisco (CSCO) trade in the $35-40 ranges for part of the next year.

20. The bandwidth constrained world feels more of a pinch: Verizon (VZ) and AT&T both experience solid or increasing rates for their wireline business services. Global Tier 1's also benefit. This also funnels down into more specialized high-bandwidth providers and fuels additional but more rational capex spending in fiber, core/edge networking, long haul, storage and commercial based server/computing sales.

21. Valuations finally start expanding in the tech sector after more than half a decade of valuation compression.
Position in BRCM, AAPL, GOOG

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