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Goldman Sachs Just Like Tiger Woods?


Both overachievers, both hamstrung at the moment.


Hello from New York, where it's quite nice. Thanks for asking. The fever has broken and, with it, so has my bad mood. Here's what I'm watching when not marveling at how nice it is to feel completely and utterly dry for the first time in almost a week:

  • Draw your own conclusions on what it "means," but a market where folks are taking down recent winners (cho-chos like Burlington Northern (BNI) and Union Pacific (UNP) getting clobbered) and long-time losers (Lehman (LEH), Morgan Stanley (MS) et al) strikes me as a tough place to make very much money but a very easy place to lose your shirt.

  • What am I doing about it? Sticking to the boring and doing less. Wal-Mart (WMT) is churning under some resistance at $60 but doing nothing really wrong from where I'm sitting and Disney (DIS) is a fundamental juggernaut in a world which seems curiously unwilling to accept it as such. I can wait.

  • The most Democratic Golf Major on Earth starts tomorrow, with Tiger and crew teeing off at Torrey Pines for the 108th US Open. Tiger is our generation's Joe Louis but, as a 2-1 favorite coming off his third knee operation, he's a Sell. I've had surgery on my left knee, folks. I'll be the first to tell you I'm no Tiger but human minds are wired the same, be they strong or weak. You can't grit your teeth and swing through a balky pivot leg. The brain simply wont allow it. Not even Tiger's.

  • The prospect of a Goldman Sachs (GS) write-down is fighting it out with the fact that somebody, somewhere, had to be on the other side of the atrocious hedging at Lehman over the last year. I still like GS if it gets to the $150's (it's our stock market's Tiger Woods, at least in the financials) but the financials aren't going to get out of their own way until they start reporting next week.

  • My daughter graduates from pre-kindergarten tomorrow morning. For the record, if my eyes seem a little bloodshot tomorrow night it will be due to allergies. Or maybe a head cold. Or pink-eye. Just thinking about it is making my symptoms crop up a bit already. Make it a good day, Minyans, and give the kids a hug for me (I hear they're like Benadryl).

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Position in WMT and DIS.

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