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Coach, Tiffany Show It's the Luxuries That Count


Retailers up more than 20% in just 2 days.

Greetings from Horse Country, where I've got the rest of the week off from television. I'm spending the down time convincing Mrs. Jeffmacke that Superfly can, in fact, dress as a hobo for Halloween, especially if it offends the neighbors.

"Their pride and disgust is the cover under which our daughter picks their pockets. These hustles are only going to get tougher after 'global intervention' fails spectacularly; we owe it to the kids to train them now." Alas, the Missus is unconvinced, and the boy wants to be a pirate. Piracy is a step in the right "fend for yourself" direction, I suppose, but no good hobo would get himself trapped at sea. The rails are our circulatory system.

On the topic of the luxuries we'll leave behind, the Woo Woo Kid asks me if I think the salivating Bears are going to get their honey off the upscale retailers as shorts pile into the bounce on names like Coach (COH) and Tiffany (TIF). I understand the attraction of shorting high-end retailers up 20% in about 2 days. But you don't get merit badges for being the first to short a rally any more than you do for getting long sell-offs. It's not a science but an art.

Which, naturally, brings us back to the Purple Crayon! The magic of the crayon works for giving exit points on uptrends and, inasmuch as "Past Support Becomes Future Resistance," you can use the Waxy Wand of Wisdom to give you short-selling entry points (or trading long exits) as well.

I agree that it's going to be a dark Christmas, but I wouldn't place bearish bets on Tiffany until and unless the stock pulled towards the $30 level. If Casa de Blue Box breaks over $36 I'd be gone. Coach has a similar set-up as well as target demographic, just different stock levels. If shorting leather is your bag, I'd hold off on Coach until it gets to $20 and would prefer $25 with a stop around $30.

While I'm loath to come up with "If...then" trading ideas, which I fully understand aren't really actionable, discretion is always the better part of valor, particularly on the short side. IF Coach and Tiffany don't get to the above levels, THEN I'd simply move on with my life. For what it's worth, I'm not planning to play either as being negative on high-end retail seems a bit crowded at "retro," as a trade idea at this point.

Tiffany and Coach burning out a few more of those shorts by getting all the way to resistance makes them better trades, at least from where I'm sitting (in the back of a Burlington Northern (BNI) boxcar, looking for an outlet for my laptop).
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Positions in BNI, UUP, SDS

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