The Lessons of Medarex

By Bill Feingold Jul 23, 2009 11:30 am
Making money doesn't require the best-case scenario.
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Medarex (MEDX) is being acquired by Bristol-Myers (BMY). For stockholders, it’s nearly a double from yesterday’s close. For convertible investors, it’s a nice kiss on a trade that had very little risk.

How so?

Medarex has a convertible that was due to mature in May 2011. Yesterday before the announcement it was trading around $0.95 on the dollar. With its 2.25% coupon, that’s no great shakes. But with the deal, the bond is now around 115. So it becomes a 20% instantaneous return for something where, as it appeared, you were unlikely to do worse than a modest single-digit return over the next 2 years.

But this isn’t the whole story.

In the midst of the convertible nuclear winter, these bonds got as low as around $0.60 on the dollar. At the time, the company’s equity valuation was only several hundred million dollars, it had a $150 million convertible obligation due in 2 and a half years, and credit markets were slammed shut.

Still, history has told us that biotech firms are surprisingly (considering the outward direction of their cash flows) creditworthy. Their research is usually of some value to big-cap pharmaceuticals desperate to add to their pipelines as mature drugs lose their immunity to generics. What’s more, biotechs have invaluable information about doctors’ interest in treatments for various indications.

Anyway, if you bought the bonds around $0.60 on the dollar, you now have nearly a double. But even without the takeout, as long as the company had survived, you would have made an annual return of 25% had you held the bonds to maturity -- even if the company was just scrambling to stay alive -- which happens to be something biotechs are really good at.

Sometimes it’s important to review not only the ways to make the most money in best-case scenarios, but also the ways to make good money in almost all scenarios.
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(1)
2009-07-24 09:35:21
Medarex Undervalued


While the premium is impressive, I believe Medarex shareholders are not being compensated fairly for the intellectual assets the current pipeline or the future revenue stream that Medarex represent.

Fully human antibodies represents one of the most important theraputic approaches in oncology, their specificity, and the fact that Medarex has the ability to generate fully human antibodies to a wide range of cancer antigens- that is antibodies that are not rejected bt the human immune system - represents a qunatum leap in oncology theraputics.

While the 2 + billion acquisition cost of Medarex may seem steep, BM Squibb stands to between 5 and 15 billion in the next decade alone in revenues generated by an increasing number of fully human anti-body candidates. Today alone, BM Squibb is acquiriing over twenty anti-body products that are in development. Tha fair value for this company at this time is at least 3x the offer amount.

While Medarex management should be commended for moving the company forward, they have sold the company at to BM squibb at a level that is not comensurate with the risk that Medarex
shareholders have assumed.

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