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Random Thoughts: What Will Month-End Bring?


Keep risk tight as we star a new 30 day stretch.

  • Somebody stop me--it's sorta like lyrical addiction!

  • Do I think there are more shoes to drop for the financials?

  • Dude, does Old Mother Hubbard like Jimmy Choos?

  • Of course there are-regardless of which way you're (I'm) positioned, never rationalize risk.

  • The trick is to identify the thin layer of opportunity that resides between perception and reality.

  • The Bristol-Myers (BMY) - Imclone (IMCL) deal is an incremental positive (M&A always is).

  • Please note that last time I checked Webster's, "incremental positive" isn't defined as a "panacea." It's simply a piece of a multi-linear, ever-changing puzzle.

  • MBIA (MBI) is a pure trade.

  • "Heck, they're all pure trades until dried-out, brain-dead skags like Boo drag them down and convince them they're no good. You so much as scowl at my niece, or any other kid in this school, and I hear about it, and I'm coming looking for Boo! Take this quarter, go downtown, and have a rat gnaw that THING off your face! Good day to you, madam."

  • I've been an educator for thirty-one POINT three years...

  • N's over S's (the four-letter freaks are out-performing).

  • I've still got a small Schering Plough (SGP) position, which I'm holding (as opposed to selling into the upgrade). My (admittedly early) view that pharma and consumer non-durables will outperform remains in play.

  • Continental (CAL) $16 is "break down" resistance, if and when. Tom Petty would be proud!

The Following Buzz Appeared at 9:43 this morning and is being shared for the benefit of Minyans not yet on the Buzz (what's keeping you?!?!?)

I entered this morning's fray with small positions in the financials (Citigroup (C) calls, MBIA (MBI)).

Into the opening punk, I added back my Citi calls (sold into yesterday's rally) and scooped some Wachovia (WB) calls (traded dry yesterday) and Mother Morgan (MS) calls ( will have
acne through $40, if and when).

My risk leash is tight (pure trades) but
I'm a buyer of dips into S&P 1235 and BKX 60 for the 'bear market rally through S&P 1300.

Nothing crazy, mind you but that's my thinking as we find our way.

Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always eating...

More Randoms

  • Into the upside reversal, I forced myself to sell a snivlet of the Citigroup calls as a function of discipline.

  • Buy dips, sell blips, stick, move, duck, goose and all that jazz. Analogies abound but the message is the same: the mechanics of the swing are always more important than the results of the at-bat.

  • If you could play any instrument in any band, what would it be and who would it be with?

  • There's an "easy" trade each day. That Snapper off this morning's lows might have been it.

  • "Easy" is a relative term, I know.

  • If and when Disney (DIS) trades with a $20-something handle, I might dip my schtick in Mickey's wick.

  • Please note S&P 1282 and BKX 68.5 on a closing basis.

  • IF and when, they would represent "higher highs" after the "higher lows," yet another stealth positive. And yeah, that's a BIG IF.

Musings on Month-End

  • Hedge funds are having their worst month in eight years.
    • The popular "long commodities, short financials" wishboned performance.
    • Some funds are reporting being down 12%.

  • Mutual Funds had a better month.
    • Especially the ones that averaged down in the Financials.

  • Recent flows have been dominated by the Hedge Funds.
    • Volumes have been quiet vs. earlier this month.

  • Unforeseen crosscurrents on the close.
    • Today will be interesting to see how the Financials close, especially with the rally we witnessed yesterday in Crude.
    • Has the hedge fund community covered their shorts in the Financials?
    • Will they press their short into the close?
    • Or will the MF window dress their Financial long exposure?


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Positions in WB, C, MS, MBI, SGP

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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