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Random Thoughts: A Healthy Rest or a Daunting Test?

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The sharpest rallies occur in the context of a bear market.

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  • I put some thought into my morning missive, which addressed the venom that spewed yesterday on "websites other than Minyanville."

  • The takeaway? People have a right to be upset but that doesn't change the world we live in. Indeed, over the last 24-hours, and hinted at a direction not dissimilar from what was discussed.

  • While I sold a fair amount of exposure into yesterday's bell-particularly after getting the "close near the highs" that we discussed in real-time on the Buzz & Banter into the heat of the meat on the heels of the FOMC-I carried home partial exposure in the financials.

  • I nibbled anew this morning-Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) were among my vehicles, along with my call options formerly known as Bank America (BAC) and Citigroup (C)-and set trailing stops as a function of risk management, particularly as I have a hokey pokey meeting schedule today.

  • Y'all see the 25% haircut in DryShips (DRYS)?

  • Green Beans in the Red Sea? Consumer non-durables (General Mills (GIS), Coca-Cola (KO)), 3M (MMM), biotech (Amgen (AMGN), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU) and gold, albeit marginally so.

  • I'm in the process of moving some monies out of my "long-term nest egg" account to an actionable trading platform. Why? To have dry powder should the market melt towards our perceived 2009 nadir near S&P 600.

  • This is, of course, independent from my active trading account, which has more swings than a Hedonism vacation.

  • Hoofy will offer that, following a strong rally off the lows-including the 26% rally in the financials-some back and fill is healthy and necessary. He's right, of course, until proven wrong.

  • Boo, for his part, will note the 3:1 negative breadth and 3% declines in the BKX (banks) and XBD (brokers) while whispering "the sharpest rallies occur in the context of a bear market."

  • While taping an interview this morning, I was asked "If you had $5,000 to spend right now, where would you invest?" My response was "What's my time horizon?"

  • Indeed, while I've been 'trading around' the financials from the long side, I stressed that it's just that-a trade. I won't own these as an investment as equity holders are at the end of a very long line that will continue to be "cut at will" by the government.

  • The destination we arrive at pales in comparison to the path we take to get there. And what a journey it is!

  • BKX 40 remains an intuitive "counter-trend" price target for the salmon in the stream.

  • I'm having serious "skippers remorse" for missing The Killers concert Sunday night at Madison Square Garden. I won't make the same mistake twice when the Grateful Dead reunite on April 25th. Has anyone seen my Birkenstocks?

Finally, Some Answers I Really Wanna Know...


R.P.

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Positions in MS, WFC, BAC, C
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