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Random Thoughts: A Healthy Rest or a Daunting Test?


The sharpest rallies occur in the context of a bear market.

  • I put some thought into my morning missive, which addressed the venom that spewed yesterday on "websites other than Minyanville."

  • The takeaway? People have a right to be upset but that doesn't change the world we live in. Indeed, over the last 24-hours, and hinted at a direction not dissimilar from what was discussed.

  • While I sold a fair amount of exposure into yesterday's bell-particularly after getting the "close near the highs" that we discussed in real-time on the Buzz & Banter into the heat of the meat on the heels of the FOMC-I carried home partial exposure in the financials.

  • I nibbled anew this morning-Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) were among my vehicles, along with my call options formerly known as Bank America (BAC) and Citigroup (C)-and set trailing stops as a function of risk management, particularly as I have a hokey pokey meeting schedule today.

  • Y'all see the 25% haircut in DryShips (DRYS)?

  • Green Beans in the Red Sea? Consumer non-durables (General Mills (GIS), Coca-Cola (KO)), 3M (MMM), biotech (Amgen (AMGN), Amazon (AMZN), Baidu (BIDU) and gold, albeit marginally so.

  • I'm in the process of moving some monies out of my "long-term nest egg" account to an actionable trading platform. Why? To have dry powder should the market melt towards our perceived 2009 nadir near S&P 600.

  • This is, of course, independent from my active trading account, which has more swings than a Hedonism vacation.

  • Hoofy will offer that, following a strong rally off the lows-including the 26% rally in the financials-some back and fill is healthy and necessary. He's right, of course, until proven wrong.

  • Boo, for his part, will note the 3:1 negative breadth and 3% declines in the BKX (banks) and XBD (brokers) while whispering "the sharpest rallies occur in the context of a bear market."

  • While taping an interview this morning, I was asked "If you had $5,000 to spend right now, where would you invest?" My response was "What's my time horizon?"

  • Indeed, while I've been 'trading around' the financials from the long side, I stressed that it's just that-a trade. I won't own these as an investment as equity holders are at the end of a very long line that will continue to be "cut at will" by the government.

  • The destination we arrive at pales in comparison to the path we take to get there. And what a journey it is!

  • BKX 40 remains an intuitive "counter-trend" price target for the salmon in the stream.

  • I'm having serious "skippers remorse" for missing The Killers concert Sunday night at Madison Square Garden. I won't make the same mistake twice when the Grateful Dead reunite on April 25th. Has anyone seen my Birkenstocks?

Finally, Some Answers I Really Wanna Know...


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Positions in MS, WFC, BAC, C

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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