Random Thoughts: Playing Musical Chairs With Bubbles
This is, in many ways, like a game of musical chairs. You can dance, you just gotta keep one eye on the seat.
- Kitty Lit Her?
- Monopoly Peg! The reflation trade is front and center as the dollar approaches multi-year lows as the commodity and equity markets do their thang. You don't have to agree with it (especially if you're part of the former middle class), you simply have to respect it.
- The piggies-as they approach resistance at BKX 111.50-and the flat trannies, both of which are still classic non-confirmations, remain on the radar.
- Still, from a "pure intra-day pure tell standpoint," 2:1 positive breadth, bodes well for Hoofy.
- How fragile is this tape? It's been Teflon, Don, but take a look at Baidu (BIDU)---it just dropped fifteen handles justlikethat after JP Morgan trimmed its revenue expectaions. Watch this name as a tell into the afternoon swellness.
- Be sure to catch the "group think" on the current landscape vs. the Weimar Republic. This is what the 'Ville is all about---noodling the world and our path within it. If you've got a question you would like bantered, please send it in. That's why we're here!
- What about leasing with an option to buy?
- Smelly Caps, Smell-ee-Caps, What are you thinking of? Keep close tabs on those semis as they trade heavy, Betty,and that's not a good sign with the futures this strong.
- I've always said to stay humble or the market will do it for you. How true.
- Steve Shobin, Come On Down! You're the latest Minyan to RSVP to our December 7th Festivus! If there is a nicer man on Wall Street, I've yet to meet him.
- Blucher! Tonight is the Broadway premiere of Young Frankenstein and, as it's my second favorite flick of all-time, I kinda sorta gotta go. Hey, a little levity goes a long way in this tape.
- Speaking of which, this week's theme in the Hoofy and Boo segment is spot on---there is a
LOT of angst floating around the street! The bears are bumming big time, the bulls wanna make more and those on the sidelines are suffering from latent performance anxiety.
- Can it get more panicky? Yep. I've learned to respect the animal spirits--to the downside ('97-'98 contagion), the upside (dot.com bubble), the downside (burst), the upside (reflation trade) and... yes, it'll cycle through again.
- This is, in many ways, like a game of musical chairs. You can dance, you just gotta keep one eye on the seat.
- In Flow's Diner, we saw some Sallie Mae (SLM) put spreads slapped on this morning, along with Potash (POT) and Terra Industries (TRA) and OSX call buyers.
- We've gotten a few emails from Minyans saying "Dude--why so negative?" Two thoughts. One, the communication of the imbalances isn't necessarily overt negativity (or, it's not meant to be). It's about awareness and seeing both sides of the trade.
- The other thing of note is that, historically, when those types of e-mails arrive en masse, we're typically close to a cusp.
- Not rationalizing, just communicating. At the end of the day, forthright dialogue, along with recognizing the difference between lessons and mistakes, is what makes the 'Ville unique.
- These Tuesday and Thursday 6:30 AM kickboxing sessions are necessary (healthy body, healthy mind, healthy spirit). But man, they take their toll.
- Sorta makes you respect Lloyd Dobler all the more, eh?
- My grandfather used to work for your grandfather. Of course the rates have gone up.
- The following Buzz appeared today at 11:15 AM...
Banana Peel Alert!!!!
- I just said to Pep "Hey Pep, am I sniffing glue or does it feel like we're gonna see a massive reversal lower today."
- I quickly looked at the breadth and the dollar and thought, hmmm... perhaps not.
- Then I eyed the stealth supply in the financials and trannies, the level of the VXO and the triple digit echo-bubblesque action in the master beta complex and thought, hmmm... yeah.
- Net/net, the "eyes" don't necessarily support it but my GUT, for what it's worth, smells something fishy. And it's not SushiThursday.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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