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Random Thoughts

By

Someone once said that a good trader knows how to make money but a great trader knows how to take a loss.

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  • We asked the question late yesterday about how much of the recent rally was "on fire momentum" and how much is a mechanical expiration pull to S&P 1525?? Prolly a bit of both, with the benefit of hindsight.

  • IF some of the move was the market machination, expect that to fade a bit later in the session.

  • A quick sniff of the tea leaves finds NYSE breadth 5:1 (3:1 Nazz), the banks above BKX 116, beta a bit laggy, the dollar in give-back mode, mini-golf averages down, excellent water slides up and cats and dogs holding paws.

  • Keep an eye on S&P 1540 --there are likely stops on the other side of that ride. So ya know--and so I'm honest--I've peeled out of 2/3 of my S&P put position and the rest is held for sale. Not the way I wanted to end a good week but hey, it could be worse.

  • A few Minyans have pinged recently on Brokedown Palace for some reason. I read it again for the first time since I scribed it and it lent some perspective in an otherwise less than perfect Friday.

  • While the path of maximum frustration may very well be a pop & drop, the tea leaves will tell the tale. As it stands, they're cooler than the other side of the pillow.

  • Flies in the try, if they begin to buzz, will likely be led by Goldman (and the other brokers) and Beta. Both groups are up but seemingly heavy, relative to the tape.

  • I'm also paring some long exposure, so you know, such that I avoid any potential for the dreaded whipped cream.


R.P.

Position in SPX

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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