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Random Thoughts


Someone once said that a good trader knows how to make money but a great trader knows how to take a loss.

  • We asked the question late yesterday about how much of the recent rally was "on fire momentum" and how much is a mechanical expiration pull to S&P 1525?? Prolly a bit of both, with the benefit of hindsight.

  • IF some of the move was the market machination, expect that to fade a bit later in the session.

  • A quick sniff of the tea leaves finds NYSE breadth 5:1 (3:1 Nazz), the banks above BKX 116, beta a bit laggy, the dollar in give-back mode, mini-golf averages down, excellent water slides up and cats and dogs holding paws.

  • Keep an eye on S&P 1540 --there are likely stops on the other side of that ride. So ya know--and so I'm honest--I've peeled out of 2/3 of my S&P put position and the rest is held for sale. Not the way I wanted to end a good week but hey, it could be worse.

  • A few Minyans have pinged recently on Brokedown Palace for some reason. I read it again for the first time since I scribed it and it lent some perspective in an otherwise less than perfect Friday.

  • While the path of maximum frustration may very well be a pop & drop, the tea leaves will tell the tale. As it stands, they're cooler than the other side of the pillow.

  • Flies in the try, if they begin to buzz, will likely be led by Goldman (and the other brokers) and Beta. Both groups are up but seemingly heavy, relative to the tape.

  • I'm also paring some long exposure, so you know, such that I avoid any potential for the dreaded whipped cream.


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