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Random Thoughts


The market is a discounting mechanism--a leading indicator. By definition, prices will change before conditions reflect the reason behind the rhyme.

  • You gotta figure alotta hedge fund managers are nervous in front of anticipated redemptions.

  • The Following Buzz took place between 9:00 AM and 10:AM…

    What's Flakin' Dude?
    9:48 AM EST

    Hiiiiiiiii! I'd like something for dandruff but I also like shine.
    I know just the thing!

    Check out this chart of the S&P and talk to me about Head & Shoulders. It's not 100% symmetrical but it's most certainly flakin'


  • We spoke about the risks in money market funds--yes, money market funds--a few weeks ago. Today, chatter is swirling that select money market funds are halting redemptions. Imagine that.

  • "Many money market funds have as much as 10% of their assets in CDO products. It is very possible mm funds can trade below 100% as a result." Professor John Succo.

  • Mission Accomplished by the FOMC? Don't, don't, don't....

  • While I sold lots (including cores down to the core) on July 18th and swapped into S&P puts, I continue to eye faves and former slaves for opportunities. Along those lines, please note that an insider just scooped 500,000 shares of SunMicro. That's something that Hoofy likes to see.

  • If I had to pick three Minyanville articles that sorta sum up my stuff, I would prolly pick The Money Tree, Brokedown Palace and Full Circle.

  • Love the luggage- what is that, crocodile skin?

  • Remember, today IS Turnaround Tuesday so keep that in the back of your crowded keppe as we fit together the pieces of this puzzle.

  • This Buzz took place between 11:00 AM and 12:00 PM….

    Petty Differences
    11:10 AM

    An upside surprise in the midst of a downdraft? Yep, it can happen. For instance, Minyan Dougie Kass calls up out of the blue and says, "Hey Toddo--you dig Petty, right? I got you a deuce for the August 25 show in the Hammies ." Noice.

    That got me thinking about the market as I watch the Art Carnage. Fortress (FIG) and Beazer (BZH) off 10%? Fannie and Freddie 3-4% lower? Lehman down 6%? Goldy off eight bucks at a fresh low? Beta buckling at the knees with Apple, Under Armor, Amazon and Yahoo all off a deuce (2%)?

    The first thing I did when I started to see the slippage was have "my guy" call our bank and make sure that our money market is plain Jane vanilla with no hidden surprises. It was (as I knew), but triple checking is always good.

    The second thing I did was to add a small round to my S&P put purchases , which I wasn't gonna share (I hate "after the fact" reporting) but do so in the interest of full disclosure. I'm watching that dandruff trace out with an eye towards S&P 1427.50 or BKX 101.50.

    If either of those lows blow, we may have to sell Petty to buy some BTO on a swap !

  • Last week, Cisco CEO John Chambers said that this is the strongest global economy that he's ever seen. Yesterday, he said that "recent economic turmoil was likely to subside in three to six months" and that "Cisco is not immune to economic change." Now, do you understand why I listened to the call with a shaker of salt ?

  • The market is a discounting mechanism--a leading indicator. By definition, prices will change before conditions reflect the reason behind the rhyme.

  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results, natch, but a smart cookie I speak with is drawing comparisons to August 1998 expiration. The S&P chopped violently around the 200-day the week of expiration and then fell 12% in four trading days as the VIX tickled 50.

  • OK, it could be worse. I could have THIS song in my head.

  • Over in the trough, the real range for the piggies---and you can drive a truck through this market--is BKX 101.50 (recent lows) and BKX 111.50 (where the bacon began shakin').

  • Sisyphus ain't got nothing on my inbox.

  • So, I'll ask it again because it's that important. Is the massive worldwide liquidity spigot opened in front of the perceived hedge fund redemptions this week?

  • Where the heck is Franklin Raines?

  • "Wednesday, the Ides of August, is significant as it is the day redemption notices will hit funds. Of course a lot of the fund liquidation has been in anticipation, so the market might hit an air pocket, and actually be a (sell-on-the-rumor) buy-on-the-fact set up." Professor Jeff Cooper on today's Buzz.

  • "In bull markets, you buy the rumor and sell the news. In bear markets, you sell the rumor and buy the news." Todd Harrison, August 10, 2007

  • Is it really obnoxious to quote yourself? Not my intent, I was simply threading some thoughts together. Seriously-I'm not like that. "I'm really not," said Todd Harrison in a recent discussion with himself, "that's not my style."


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