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Freaky Friday Potpourri: Turn Those Machines Back On!

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Close the week out on a strong note.

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The morning futures let out a hefty burp after Breakfast with Beeks confirmed that times are tough. To be fair and consistent, I stopped giving the BLS my full attention a long time ago as their employment numbers rarely jibe with reality. I suppose that could work the other way, so take everything they say with a grain of salt.

As I'm all of a sudden feeling drekky-just in time for the weekend, nice!-I'm gonna cut to the Vinnie Chase and shoot from the hip:

  • I haven't been highlighting the crude cover (Wednesday's close) as a victory lap. Old school Minyans know we don't roll that way in the 'Ville. I've been doing it for two reasons.

    • One, there are two types of traders in this tape--the quick and the dead.
    • Two, my intention at the time was to let some out into the previous high now that we've got defined risk and that's coming up quick.

  • There's alotta chatta on Lehman (LEH) that it's gonna preannounce earnings to quell investor concern. To be clear, my gut says they're not the next Bear (BSC). Even still, the last time I heard this exact same thing was in... Bear.

  • Remember when I said Paul Pierce was over-rated? Mea culpa--I was wrong--the kid (kid?) has heart and provided Willis Reed-esque inspiration for his team last night. I don't like Boston teams as a rule of thumb (anyone catch the Red Sox brawl?) but I happen to like the players on the Celtics. Sorta like not liking the market but liking stocks...


Walking to work this morning, I was thinking of a few things...

  • First, where does all the time go? I woke up, looked at Phoebe to my right and said "Just like old times, eh?"

  • Second, there were four 20%-ish rallies during the 2000-2002 period so you gotta allow for such things even if you "see" reality.

  • Third, BKX 75 remains a decent near-term proxy for directional risk.

  • Four, I can't believe I'm getting sick just in time for my Baltimore getaway.

  • Five, I felt gratitude for every little silly thing that I have rather than lament for those that got away.

  • Six, I really want a bagel with shmear (in motion).

  • Seven, the upside to President Fish's defiant ways is the loyalty that manifested as we, the Minyans, supported our fearless leader.

  • Eight, I've got some risk on in JP Morgan (JPM) and CME (CME) (puts), along with some tertiary paper positions (McClatchey (MNI), Gannett (GCI))--which act Punky Brewster--and some Boots & Coots (WEL), and not just because I like saying it!

  • Nine, I've also got some leftover Halliburton (HAL) puts and will likely add back my USO put position with a TIGHT STOP above the previous high.


Other Random Thoughts…

  • In terms of retail, is low-end, mid-tier or high-end the play? There are risks and reward to each tier but through a macro lens, they're somewhat binary. Consumption is a function of credit and retail, by extension, is a function of how elastic that debt is.

  • Is Stevie Winwood gonna steal the show from Petty the same way he did at the Clapton gig?

  • "Essentially, the Fed did not hesitate to go "all in," now there are a lot of people hoping they have the right cards." -Mike O'Rourke, BTIG

  • I don't know about you but THIS Minyan is ready for the weekend. Let's finish strong, with a smile on yer puss and some jingle in yo jeans!


R.P.

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positions in jpm, cme, mni, gci, wel, hal, uso
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