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Freaky Friday Potpourri: Turn Those Machines Back On!

By

Close the week out on a strong note.

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The morning futures let out a hefty burp after Breakfast with Beeks confirmed that times are tough. To be fair and consistent, I stopped giving the BLS my full attention a long time ago as their employment numbers rarely jibe with reality. I suppose that could work the other way, so take everything they say with a grain of salt.

As I'm all of a sudden feeling drekky-just in time for the weekend, nice!-I'm gonna cut to the Vinnie Chase and shoot from the hip:

  • I haven't been highlighting the crude cover (Wednesday's close) as a victory lap. Old school Minyans know we don't roll that way in the 'Ville. I've been doing it for two reasons.

    • One, there are two types of traders in this tape--the quick and the dead.
    • Two, my intention at the time was to let some out into the previous high now that we've got defined risk and that's coming up quick.

  • There's alotta chatta on Lehman (LEH) that it's gonna preannounce earnings to quell investor concern. To be clear, my gut says they're not the next Bear (BSC). Even still, the last time I heard this exact same thing was in... Bear.

  • Remember when I said Paul Pierce was over-rated? Mea culpa--I was wrong--the kid (kid?) has heart and provided Willis Reed-esque inspiration for his team last night. I don't like Boston teams as a rule of thumb (anyone catch the Red Sox brawl?) but I happen to like the players on the Celtics. Sorta like not liking the market but liking stocks...


Walking to work this morning, I was thinking of a few things...

  • First, where does all the time go? I woke up, looked at Phoebe to my right and said "Just like old times, eh?"

  • Second, there were four 20%-ish rallies during the 2000-2002 period so you gotta allow for such things even if you "see" reality.

  • Third, BKX 75 remains a decent near-term proxy for directional risk.

  • Four, I can't believe I'm getting sick just in time for my Baltimore getaway.

  • Five, I felt gratitude for every little silly thing that I have rather than lament for those that got away.

  • Six, I really want a bagel with shmear (in motion).

  • Seven, the upside to President Fish's defiant ways is the loyalty that manifested as we, the Minyans, supported our fearless leader.

  • Eight, I've got some risk on in JP Morgan (JPM) and CME (CME) (puts), along with some tertiary paper positions (McClatchey (MNI), Gannett (GCI))--which act Punky Brewster--and some Boots & Coots (WEL), and not just because I like saying it!

  • Nine, I've also got some leftover Halliburton (HAL) puts and will likely add back my USO put position with a TIGHT STOP above the previous high.


Other Random Thoughts…

  • In terms of retail, is low-end, mid-tier or high-end the play? There are risks and reward to each tier but through a macro lens, they're somewhat binary. Consumption is a function of credit and retail, by extension, is a function of how elastic that debt is.

  • Is Stevie Winwood gonna steal the show from Petty the same way he did at the Clapton gig?

  • "Essentially, the Fed did not hesitate to go "all in," now there are a lot of people hoping they have the right cards." -Mike O'Rourke, BTIG

  • I don't know about you but THIS Minyan is ready for the weekend. Let's finish strong, with a smile on yer puss and some jingle in yo jeans!


R.P.

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positions in jpm, cme, mni, gci, wel, hal, uso

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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