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Covering Crude?


Bears watch oil's 2008 trendline.


I return from my all-day MarketWatch meld--which was awesome--to find alotta flickers and tickers vying for my attention. As I'm jamming to ketchup and stahvin' like Marvin, I offer these first blush thought in no particular order:

  • I've unwound the remainder of my negative energy bet. Why? First, as discussed when we slapped it on two weeks ago, it was a pure trade rather than trying to pinpoint the crossroads between inflation and deflation. Second, I wanna see how crude reacts into the 2008 trendline, particularly in the face of the sudden rush of "I told you so" bears.

  • I do believe there's more "there" on the downside. The great thing about trading is that we can reinitiate exposure, either from higher or lower levels. Trades are made to be taken, however, and Winky Wright wants a breather.

  • In the interest of being forthright, I do have some residual Halliburton (HAL) puts on my sheets. Stems and seeds but so it's said.

  • I've also covered the CME short we discussed yesterday. Same thought--while it's "broken" under $400 and vulnerable to regulatory rumblings, $20 in a single session is more than enough for moi. Bulls and bears make money. Bacon gets shaken.

  • MBIA (MBI) and Ambac (ABK)? Can't say it's a shocker. What remains to be seen is the contagion vs. containment fallout. Again, I don't have a horse in that race--weird, I know, given the BKX 75, but when it doubt, prudence dictates waiting it out.

  • Lest I ever take the Minyanville Buzz & Banter for granted, it provided a play by play while I was away from the fray. If you're diggin' it as I am, please be a Faberge commercial. If you tell two friends, they'll tell two friends, and so on and so on and so on!


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