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Random Thoughts: The Salmon and the Stream


Swimming against the current.

As Old School Minyans well know, I'm nothing if not consistent. My market vibes often prove prescient but I'm seemingly always early. I offer this, hat in hand, as I've been discussing the short side of oil for the last few sessions. It's been off base and it's cost me coin, which is all the more frustrating as I got in front of Turnaround Tuesday.

Last night, I put pen to paper--or a derivative thereof--to flesh out my thought process a bit more. My Wednesday columns are syndicated to our friends at MarketWatch and feedback flows into their message boards. It's worth noting that there was a bevy of negativity when I spoke bearishly on the banks last Summer, bullish on the financials on the Bear Stearns (BSC) news and just last week, when I offered that there could be a bid through expiration.

As you might expect, the reaction to this morning's column has me hanging with the Allman Brothers.

There is obviously risk to this position--again, I can't shake the sense that something will "happen" in Iran, which would certainly explain the incessant bid--but all we can do is the best we can do and do it with integrity and honesty.

I'll leave you with this chart, which will hopefully offer food for thought as we fit the pieces together. Thanks Yo, and have a rockin' Hump!

Click to enlarge

More Random Thoughts…

  • We've been watching the financials like Boo watches... well, never mind!

  • In that vein, I'll continue to point to BKX 75 as the most important level in the universe. The Minyan Professors have been ALL OVER the dilutive nature of the issuance and the potential for more shoes. If the piggies break to multi-year lows, the poke will smoke and Hoofy will choke (Gawdforbid!)

  • Did somebody call the Chartist Formerly Known as Prince? They must have, 'cause Mexico Energy (MXC)--up 1175% this month--is partying like it's 1999!

  • Yes, I literally just banged the side of my (sixth) screen because it must be broken--it's showing crude down a penny!

  • Sometimes you're gonna be the windshield, other times you're gonna be the bug.

  • There have been days in my career when I felt like I had the script before the market played out the plot. Today is not one of 'em as my longs, shorts, weight and hair follicle count are all moving in the wrong direction. It happens to the best of us. It sucks, but it happens. And you know what else? The day ain't over!

  • Maybe I'm over-thinking the price action in oil--ya think?--but it's feeling more and more like a Middle East shoe could drop.

  • What would I have done differently? Wait for the first turn lower and use that cusp as the stop level before pressing my bet. While I've got plenty of dry powder and continue to trade around my positions, I made a tactical mistake and I'm happy to share it with ye faithful with hopes that it offers a lesson for some.

  • Away from that fray, I'm watching the banks (watch BKX 75) and brokers (Randolph and Mortimer can't be happy), breadth (surprisingly balanced), General Electric (GE) (multi-year low for the financial in drag), the S&P (sitting on the uptrend from March low), the clock (is it Friday yet), my door (where the heck is lunch) and you. I'm watching YOU, Fokker.

  • Raise your hand if you're ready for a long weekend (both hands raised!). So you know and so it's said, I'm out Friday through Friday, hitting the west coast for some business meetings and a Seattle Minyanfest on Tuesday. Seeing old friends is always good for the soul!


In the Emerald City on May 27th? Join us at 4 P.M. at Revolution Bar & Grill (at the Experience Music Project) to mingle with your fellow Minyans!

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